BYU vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsECU
- Q4 3:48BYUMatt Bushman 12 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Rhett Almond Kick)17–33
- Q4 6:25ECUQuay Johnson 9 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)10–33
- Q4 13:47ECUTrevon Brown 26 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)10–26
- Q3 1:07ECUJake Verity 33 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q3 6:17ECUJake Verity 32 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 13:01ECUJake Verity 42 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:00BYURhett Almond 22 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 10:35ECUJake Verity 42 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:09ECUThomas Sirk 1 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:52BYUMicah Simon 12 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Rhett Almond Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTanner Mangum 26/41, 319 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushUla Tolutau 15 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecAleva Hifo 9 REC, 148 YDS
- PassThomas Sirk 14/21, 177 YDS
- RushDevin Anderson 12 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecDavon Grayson 10 REC, 164 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:17ECU +16%
Jake Verity 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 3:09ECU +14%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q4 13:47ECU +14%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 26 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q3 1:07ECU +14%
Jake Verity 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 6:52BYU +13%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 12 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
- Q3 3:05ECU +12%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 36 yds to the EASTCRLINA 40 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, personal foul (Trevion Greene) to the BYU 25 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. East Carolina?
BYU 17, East Carolina 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BYU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BYU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 421 | Total yards | 413 |
| 319 | Passing yards | 298 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 22 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 26/41 | Comp/Att | 20/30 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-69 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 33:16 | Possession | 26:44 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 BYU field goal on 4th & 3 at ECU 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:48BYUMatt Bushman 12 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Rhett Almond Kick)17–33
- Q4 6:25ECUQuay Johnson 9 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)10–33
- Q4 13:47ECUTrevon Brown 26 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)10–26
- Q3 1:07ECUJake Verity 33 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q3 6:17ECUJake Verity 32 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 13:01ECUJake Verity 42 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:00BYURhett Almond 22 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 10:35ECUJake Verity 42 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:09ECUThomas Sirk 1 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:52BYUMicah Simon 12 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Rhett Almond Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1081, BYU Elo 1399 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +10.3 (26% to win) — 4.8 points clear of BYU's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #77 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| BYU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.4 (#101) | CORE overall | -27.2 (#125) |
| -12 / -0 | offense / defense | -2 / +25 |
| 1.34 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 3.62 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →