Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 4:02OKSTDillon Stoner 14 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)45–40
- Q4 4:55OKSTMason Rudolph 2 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)45–34
- Q4 8:56OKSTJames Washington 8 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)45–27
- Q4 12:51KSUMatthew McCrane 33 Yd Field Goal 45–20
- Q3 3:55OKSTJustice Hill 2 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)42–20
- Q3 5:22KSUByron Pringle 60 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Matthew McCrane Kick)42–13
- Q3 7:47KSUByron Pringle 46 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Matthew McCrane Kick)35–13
- Q2 1:30KSUAlex Barnes 39 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)28–13
- Q2 8:38KSUByron Pringle 89 Yd Kickoff Return (Matthew McCrane Kick)21–13
- Q2 8:51OKSTMatt Ammendola 27 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 13:32KSUByron Pringle 47 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Matthew McCrane Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:08OKSTMatt Ammendola 32 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:51OKSTJames Washington 38 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:21KSUSkylar Thompson 5 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassSkylar Thompson 10/13, 204 YDS, 3 TD
- RushSkylar Thompson 17 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecByron Pringle 4 REC, 166 YDS, 3 TD
- PassMason Rudolph 32/53, 425 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushJustice Hill 23 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJames Washington 8 REC, 159 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:02OKST +26%
M. Rudolph pass,to D. Stoner for 14 yds for a TD, (M. Rudolph intercepted )
- Q2 1:30KSU +23%
Alex Barnes run for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
- Q2 8:38KSU +21%
Matt Ammendola kickoff for 54 yds, Byron Pringle return for 89 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
- Q4 3:50KSU +19%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 16
- Q2 13:32KSU +19%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Byron Pringle for 47 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
- Q3 7:47KSU +17%
S. Thompson pass,to B. Pringle for 46 yds for a TD, (M. McCrane KICK), (M. McCrane KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State?
Kansas State 45, Oklahoma State 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KSU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 421 | Total yards | 510 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 425 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 85 |
| 18 | First downs | 30 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 10/13 | Comp/Att | 32/53 |
| 15.7 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-41 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 35:01 | Possession | 24:59 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:40 KSU punt on 4th & 6 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:02OKSTDillon Stoner 14 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)45–40
- Q4 4:55OKSTMason Rudolph 2 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)45–34
- Q4 8:56OKSTJames Washington 8 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)45–27
- Q4 12:51KSUMatthew McCrane 33 Yd Field Goal 45–20
- Q3 3:55OKSTJustice Hill 2 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)42–20
- Q3 5:22KSUByron Pringle 60 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Matthew McCrane Kick)42–13
- Q3 7:47KSUByron Pringle 46 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Matthew McCrane Kick)35–13
- Q2 1:30KSUAlex Barnes 39 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)28–13
- Q2 8:38KSUByron Pringle 89 Yd Kickoff Return (Matthew McCrane Kick)21–13
- Q2 8:51OKSTMatt Ammendola 27 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 13:32KSUByron Pringle 47 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Matthew McCrane Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:08OKSTMatt Ammendola 32 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:51OKSTJames Washington 38 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:21KSUSkylar Thompson 5 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1915, KSU Elo 1647 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST -13.1 (81% to win) — 6.4 points clear of KSU's market line of -19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #10 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #10 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 43–26 · Kansas State has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| KSU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.3 (#60) | CORE overall | +24.9 (#9) |
| +2 / -1 | offense / defense | +20 / -5 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 3.28 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →