Bowling Green vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 1:21BGSUBrandon Harris 93 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Suder Kick)37–29
- Q4 12:15BGSUTeo Redding 28 Yd pass from James Morgan (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)30–29
- Q3 0:08M-OHSamuel Sloman 45 Yd Field Goal 24–29
- Q3 13:08M-OHJared Murphy 36 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Samuel Sloman Kick)24–26
- Q3 14:50BGSUTeo Redding 75 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)24–19
- Q2 0:03M-OHSamuel Sloman 39 Yd Field Goal 17–19
- Q2 1:22BGSUMatthew Wilcox Jr. 2 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)17–16
- Q2 4:23M-OHSamuel Sloman 22 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 12:04BGSUJosh Cleveland 33 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)10–13
- Q2 13:44M-OHGus Ragland 11 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)3–13
- Q1 6:00M-OHJames Gardner 32 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Samuel Sloman PAT failed)3–6
- Q1 8:57BGSUJake Suder 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and M-OH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassJames Morgan 11/25, 222 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushAndrew Clair 16 CAR, 121 YDS
- RecTeo Redding 8 REC, 197 YDS, 2 TD
- PassGus Ragland 16/26, 255 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKenny Young 19 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecJames Gardner 5 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:21BGSU +60%
TEAM run for no gain TEAM fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Brandon Harris, return for 93 yds, (Jake Suder KICK)
- Q4 12:15BGSU +38%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 13:08M-OH +29%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 36 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
- Q3 14:50BGSU +24%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
- Q2 1:22BGSU +20%
James Morgan pass complete to Matthew Wilcox Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
- Q4 3:25BGSU +16%
Jake Suder 40 yd FG MISSED
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Miami (OH)?
Bowling Green 37, Miami (OH) 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked M-OH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 505 | Total yards | 612 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 374 |
| 275 | Rushing yards | 238 |
| 26 | First downs | 37 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 12/26 | Comp/Att | 24/43 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-95 | Penalties | 7-62 |
| 24:14 | Possession | 35:46 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:23 M-OH field goal on 4th & 1 at BGSU 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:21BGSUBrandon Harris 93 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Suder Kick)37–29
- Q4 12:15BGSUTeo Redding 28 Yd pass from James Morgan (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)30–29
- Q3 0:08M-OHSamuel Sloman 45 Yd Field Goal 24–29
- Q3 13:08M-OHJared Murphy 36 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Samuel Sloman Kick)24–26
- Q3 14:50BGSUTeo Redding 75 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)24–19
- Q2 0:03M-OHSamuel Sloman 39 Yd Field Goal 17–19
- Q2 1:22BGSUMatthew Wilcox Jr. 2 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)17–16
- Q2 4:23M-OHSamuel Sloman 22 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 12:04BGSUJosh Cleveland 33 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)10–13
- Q2 13:44M-OHGus Ragland 11 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)3–13
- Q1 6:00M-OHJames Gardner 32 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Samuel Sloman PAT failed)3–6
- Q1 8:57BGSUJake Suder 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1348, BGSU Elo 1174 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -9.4 (74% to win) — 7.1 points clear of BGSU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #16 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Miami (OH) leads 34–21–4 · Miami (OH) has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| BGSU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.8 (#121) | CORE overall | -0.7 (#65) |
| -3 / +18 | offense / defense | -3 / -2 |
| 1.84 | points / drive | 1.92 |
| 3.02 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →