Washington State vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsCAL
- Q4 5:26CALGerran Brown 26 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Anderson Kick)3–37
- Q4 7:13CALMatt Anderson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q4 13:10CALRoss Bowers 7 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)3–27
- Q3 5:13CALMatt Anderson 48 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:00CALKyle Wells 2 Yd pass from Ross Bowers (Matt Anderson Kick)3–17
- Q2 11:27WSUErik Powell 52 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 4:34CALVic Enwere 6 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:12CALMatt Anderson 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassLuke Falk 28/43, 286 YDS, 5 INT
- RushJamal Morrow 8 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecIsaiah Johnson-Mack 6 REC, 59 YDS
- PassRoss Bowers 21/38, 259 YDS, 1 TD
- RushVic Enwere 22 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKanawai Noa 6 REC, 95 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:00CAL +22%
Kyle Wells 2 Yd pass from Ross Bowers (Matt Anderson Kick)
- Q1 4:34CAL +19%
Vic Enwere 6 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)
- Q2 11:27WSU +8%
Erik Powell 52 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 2:22CAL +8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Gavin Reinwald
- Q3 9:36CAL +8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III
- Q3 5:18CAL +7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. California?
Washington State 3, California 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 365 |
| 314 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 23 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 16 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 32/48 | Comp/Att | 21/38 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 0.9 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 32:50 | Possession | 27:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:52 WSU punt on 4th & 2 at WSU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:26CALGerran Brown 26 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Anderson Kick)3–37
- Q4 7:13CALMatt Anderson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q4 13:10CALRoss Bowers 7 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)3–27
- Q3 5:13CALMatt Anderson 48 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:00CALKyle Wells 2 Yd pass from Ross Bowers (Matt Anderson Kick)3–17
- Q2 11:27WSUErik Powell 52 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 4:34CALVic Enwere 6 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:12CALMatt Anderson 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1487, WSU Elo 1843 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +11.8 (23% to win) — 4.7 points clear of CAL's market line of +16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #15 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #7 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →California leads 49–30–5 · 37% have been one-possession games
| WSU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.8 (#43) | CORE overall | -6.5 (#85) |
| -5 / -12 | offense / defense | -4 / +2 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +26 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →