Miami vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsPITT
- Q4 2:16MIABraxton Berrios 39 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)14–24
- Q4 2:54PITTKenny Pickett 22 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)7–24
- Q3 1:47PITTQadree Ollison 5 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:35PITTKenny Pickett 6 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)7–10
- Q2 7:03MIAAhmmon Richards 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:45PITTAlex Kessman 46 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMalik Rosier 15/34, 187 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMalik Rosier 12 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecBraxton Berrios 4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKenny Pickett 18/29, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- RushQadree Ollison 14 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecJester Weah 6 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:47PITT +34%
Qadree Ollison 5 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)
- Q2 0:35PITT +21%
Kenny Pickett 6 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)
- Q2 7:03MIA +16%
Ahmmon Richards 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)
- Q4 10:42PITT +13%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Chris Clark for 5 yds to the Pitt 41
- Q3 2:32PITT +13%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 5
- Q4 14:09PITT +12%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Chris Clark
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Pittsburgh?
Miami 14, Pittsburgh 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 232 | Total yards | 345 |
| 187 | Passing yards | 193 |
| 45 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 14 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/36 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-52 | Penalties | 5-54 |
| 23:30 | Possession | 36:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:58 MIA punt on 4th & 3 at PITT 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:16MIABraxton Berrios 39 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)14–24
- Q4 2:54PITTKenny Pickett 22 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)7–24
- Q3 1:47PITTQadree Ollison 5 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:35PITTKenny Pickett 6 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)7–10
- Q2 7:03MIAAhmmon Richards 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:45PITTAlex Kessman 46 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1536, MIA Elo 1928 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT +13.3 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #31 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #2 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Miami leads 30–12–1 · 23% have been one-possession games
| MIA | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.1 (#21) | CORE overall | +3.1 (#59) |
| +2 / -12 | offense / defense | +1 / -2 |
| 2.05 | points / drive | 1.76 |
| 1.54 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →