Georgia Tech vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 8:39DUKEDaniel Jones 32 Yd Run (William Holmquist Kick)20–43
- Q4 13:57DUKEDaniel Helm 4 Yd pass from Shaun Wilson (Austin Parker PAT failed)20–36
- Q3 5:17DUKEAustin Parker 25 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q3 11:58DUKEShaun Wilson 16 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)20–27
- Q2 0:26DUKEBrittain Brown 2 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)20–20
- Q2 2:09GTTaQuon Marshall 8 Yd Run (Brenton King PAT blocked)20–13
- Q2 7:48DUKEAustin Parker 25 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 11:46DUKEShaun Wilson 11 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:13GTJ.J. Green 3 Yd Run (Brenton King Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:53DUKEAustin Parker 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:31GTQua Searcy 35 Yd pass from TaQuon Marshall (Brenton King Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTaQuon Marshall 3/13, 82 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTaQuon Marshall 20 CAR, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRicky Jeune 2 REC, 47 YDS
- PassDaniel Jones 18/26, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrittain Brown 14 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJohnathan Lloyd 5 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:58DUKE +32%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 16 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
- Q4 13:57DUKE +21%
Shaun Wilson pass complete to Daniel Helm for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker PAT MISSED)
- Q2 0:26DUKE +21%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
- Q2 2:09GT +18%
TaQuon Marshall run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brenton King PAT BLOCKED)
- Q1 8:31GT +14%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Qua Searcy for 35 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
- Q3 5:17DUKE +14%
Austin Parker 25 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Duke?
Georgia Tech 20, Duke 43.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Total yards | 500 |
| 82 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 277 | Rushing yards | 319 |
| 15 | First downs | 30 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 3/14 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-63 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 27:56 | Possession | 32:04 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:56 GT go for it on 4th & 9 at GT 32. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:39DUKEDaniel Jones 32 Yd Run (William Holmquist Kick)20–43
- Q4 13:57DUKEDaniel Helm 4 Yd pass from Shaun Wilson (Austin Parker PAT failed)20–36
- Q3 5:17DUKEAustin Parker 25 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q3 11:58DUKEShaun Wilson 16 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)20–27
- Q2 0:26DUKEBrittain Brown 2 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)20–20
- Q2 2:09GTTaQuon Marshall 8 Yd Run (Brenton King PAT blocked)20–13
- Q2 7:48DUKEAustin Parker 25 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 11:46DUKEShaun Wilson 11 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:13GTJ.J. Green 3 Yd Run (Brenton King Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:53DUKEAustin Parker 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:31GTQua Searcy 35 Yd pass from TaQuon Marshall (Brenton King Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1488, GT Elo 1720 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE +6.9 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #67 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 56–35–1 · Georgia Tech has won 5 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| GT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.1 (#39) | CORE overall | +8.7 (#36) |
| +8 / +0 | offense / defense | -5 / -14 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 2.15 | allowed / drive | 1.45 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -28 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →