Notre Dame vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NDTeam statsMIA
- Q4 4:00MIADeeJay Dallas 4 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)8–41
- Q3 0:12NDAlize Mack 14 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Brandon Wimbush Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–34
- Q3 10:30MIADeeJay Dallas 4 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)0–34
- Q2 0:22MIATrajan Bandy 65 Yd Interception Return (Michael Badgley Kick)0–27
- Q2 5:56MIAMichael Badgley 30 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 13:27MIAMichael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:33MIAMalik Rosier 16 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:01MIABraxton Berrios 7 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrandon Wimbush 10/21, 119 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJosh Adams 16 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecEquanimeous St. Brown 4 REC, 68 YDS
- PassMalik Rosier 15/24, 137 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTravis Homer 18 CAR, 146 YDS
- RecLawrence Cager 2 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:01MIA +19%
Braxton Berrios 7 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)
- Q1 2:33MIA +17%
Malik Rosier 16 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)
- Q2 13:27MIA +7%
Michael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Miami?
Notre Dame 8, Miami 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ND, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 261 | Total yards | 374 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 237 |
| 13 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 13/27 | Comp/Att | 15/24 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-49 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 26:01 | Possession | 33:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:47 MIA punt on 4th & 1 at ND 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.98 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:00MIADeeJay Dallas 4 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)8–41
- Q3 0:12NDAlize Mack 14 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Brandon Wimbush Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–34
- Q3 10:30MIADeeJay Dallas 4 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)0–34
- Q2 0:22MIATrajan Bandy 65 Yd Interception Return (Michael Badgley Kick)0–27
- Q2 5:56MIAMichael Badgley 30 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 13:27MIAMichael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:33MIAMalik Rosier 16 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:01MIABraxton Berrios 7 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1826, ND Elo 1992 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA +4.2 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #85 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #49 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Notre Dame leads 18–9–1 · Miami has won 2 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| ND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.8 (#13) | CORE overall | +14.1 (#21) |
| +10 / -11 | offense / defense | +2 / -12 |
| 2.58 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 1.58 | allowed / drive | 1.54 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →