Texas State vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsCCU
- Q4 14:21TXSTAnthony Smith 1 Yd Run (Foster Hilborn Kick)27–7
- Q3 2:54TXSTFoster Hilborn 37 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:00TXSTFoster Hilborn 37 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 4:20TXSTEric Luna 7 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Foster Hilborn Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:54CCUAnthony Chesley 50 Yd Fumble Return (Evan Rabon Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:15TXSTGabe Schrade 54 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Foster Hilborn Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDamian Williams 27/38, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAnthony Smith 12 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Watts 8 REC, 90 YDS
- PassTyler Keane 8/16, 91 YDS
- RushTyler Keane 2 CAR, 8 YDS
- RecChris Jones 5 REC, 65 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:20TXST +22%
Damian Williams pass complete to Eric Luna for 7 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
- Q3 2:54TXST +13%
Foster Hilborn 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 11:15TXST +13%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 54 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
- Q1 4:54CCU +12%
Team run for a loss of 23 yards Team fumbled, recovered by CCaro Anthony Chesley, return for 50 yds, (Evan Rabon KICK)
- Q4 14:21TXST +12%
Anthony Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Foster Hilborn KICK)
- Q2 0:00TXST +11%
Foster Hilborn 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Coastal Carolina?
Texas State 27, Coastal Carolina 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TXST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 507 | Total yards | 183 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 149 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 34 |
| 32 | First downs | 9 |
| 11-19 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/39 | Comp/Att | 13/27 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 14-123 |
| 36:53 | Possession | 23:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:23 CCU punt on 4th & 1 at CCU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:21TXSTAnthony Smith 1 Yd Run (Foster Hilborn Kick)27–7
- Q3 2:54TXSTFoster Hilborn 37 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:00TXSTFoster Hilborn 37 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 4:20TXSTEric Luna 7 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Foster Hilborn Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:54CCUAnthony Chesley 50 Yd Fumble Return (Evan Rabon Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:15TXSTGabe Schrade 54 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Foster Hilborn Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1308, TXST Elo 919 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -18 (88% to win) — 8.5 points clear of CCU's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #46 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| TXST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.9 (#118) | CORE overall | -13.7 (#104) |
| -11 / +7 | offense / defense | -4 / +10 |
| 1.35 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.58 | allowed / drive | 2.81 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →