UNLV vs. Idaho: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsIDAH
- Q4 2:16UNLVEvan Pantels 27 Yd Field Goal 44–16
- Q4 13:53UNLVDevonte Boyd 94 Yd pass from Armani Rogers (Evan Pantels Kick)41–16
- Q4 14:51IDAHReuben Mwehla 4 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Cade Coffey PAT failed)34–16
- Q3 1:36UNLVLexington Thomas 62 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)34–10
- Q3 3:51IDAHMatt Linehan 1 Yd Run (Cade Coffey Kick)27–10
- Q3 7:51UNLVEvan Pantels 22 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q3 12:17UNLVLexington Thomas 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)24–3
- Q3 13:56UNLVLexington Thomas 60 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)17–3
- Q2 3:37IDAHCade Coffey 40 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 9:32UNLVEvan Pantels 40 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 6:59UNLVArmani Rogers 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassArmani Rogers 10/16, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLexington Thomas 17 CAR, 190 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDevonte Boyd 2 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMatt Linehan 22/34, 261 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAaron Duckworth 18 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecJacob Sannon 11 REC, 109 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:56UNLV +21%
Lexington Thomas run for 60 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
- Q1 6:59UNLV +19%
Armani Rogers 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)
- Q3 12:17UNLV +16%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
- Q2 9:32UNLV +11%
Evan Pantels 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 3:32UNLV +7%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted Ed Hall return for 10 yds to the UNLV 19
- Q2 3:37IDAH +7%
Cade Coffey 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Idaho?
UNLV 44, Idaho 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked IDAH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | IDAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 550 | Total yards | 384 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 261 |
| 357 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 10/16 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-47 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 30:55 | Possession | 29:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 14:47 IDAH punt on 4th & 1 at IDAH 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:16UNLVEvan Pantels 27 Yd Field Goal 44–16
- Q4 13:53UNLVDevonte Boyd 94 Yd pass from Armani Rogers (Evan Pantels Kick)41–16
- Q4 14:51IDAHReuben Mwehla 4 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Cade Coffey PAT failed)34–16
- Q3 1:36UNLVLexington Thomas 62 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)34–10
- Q3 3:51IDAHMatt Linehan 1 Yd Run (Cade Coffey Kick)27–10
- Q3 7:51UNLVEvan Pantels 22 Yd Field Goal 27–3
- Q3 12:17UNLVLexington Thomas 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)24–3
- Q3 13:56UNLVLexington Thomas 60 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)17–3
- Q2 3:37IDAHCade Coffey 40 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 9:32UNLVEvan Pantels 40 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 6:59UNLVArmani Rogers 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IDAH Elo 1409, UNLV Elo 1247 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IDAH -8.9 (73% to win) — 4.4 points clear of IDAH's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #80 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| UNLV | IDAH | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.2 (#113) | CORE overall | -14.0 (#105) |
| -1 / +17 | offense / defense | -12 / +2 |
| 2.43 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →