Washington vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsASU
- Q4 5:32WASHJake Browning 1 Yd Run (Tristan Vizcaino Kick)7–13
- Q2 5:44ASUBrandon Ruiz 25 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 14:03ASUBrandon Ruiz 52 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:26ASUKalen Ballage 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Browning 17/30, 139 YDS
- RushMyles Gaskin 14 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecDante Pettis 7 REC, 56 YDS
- PassManny Wilkins 29/41, 245 YDS
- RushDemario Richard 8 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecN'Keal Harry 9 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:56ASU +30%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ceejhay French-Love for 30 yds to the Wash 7 for a 1ST down
- Q4 5:32WASH +21%
Jake Browning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)
- Q1 5:26ASU +14%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
- Q4 9:30ASU +12%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 2 yds to the Wash 29
- Q2 5:44ASU +11%
Brandon Ruiz 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:40ASU +10%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 10
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Arizona State?
Washington 7, Arizona State 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WASH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WASH | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 230 | Total yards | 285 |
| 139 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 40 |
| 14 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 5-18 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 17/30 | Comp/Att | 29/41 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 1.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 25:05 | Possession | 34:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:29 WASH go for it on 4th & 9 at ASU 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:32WASHJake Browning 1 Yd Run (Tristan Vizcaino Kick)7–13
- Q2 5:44ASUBrandon Ruiz 25 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 14:03ASUBrandon Ruiz 52 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 5:26ASUKalen Ballage 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1412, WASH Elo 1993 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU +20.8 (10% to win) — 3.3 points clear of WASH's market line of +17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #14 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #5 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Arizona State leads 22–17 · 38% have been one-possession games
| WASH | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.4 (#12) | CORE overall | -3.0 (#70) |
| +10 / -11 | offense / defense | +2 / +5 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 1.21 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →