Georgia State vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsCLT
- Q4 0:22GASTGlenn Smith 1 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)28–0
- Q4 14:10GASTShamarious Gilmore 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Wright Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:44GASTPenny Hart 32 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Brandon Wright Kick)14–0
- Q2 12:29GASTGlenn Smith 3 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassConner Manning 26/37, 250 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGlenn Smith 31 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
- RecPenny Hart 11 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHasaan Klugh 16/29, 179 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBenny LeMay 20 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecMark Quattlebaum 6 REC, 91 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:29GAST +19%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q2 0:44GAST +15%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 32 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q3 5:25GAST +5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 6 yds to the Charl 22
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Charlotte?
Georgia State 28, Charlotte 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.
| GAST | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 273 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 26/37 | Comp/Att | 16/29 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 40:41 | Possession | 19:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:22 GAST punt on 4th & 3 at CLT 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:22GASTGlenn Smith 1 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)28–0
- Q4 14:10GASTShamarious Gilmore 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Wright Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:44GASTPenny Hart 32 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Brandon Wright Kick)14–0
- Q2 12:29GASTGlenn Smith 3 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1090, GAST Elo 1193 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +1.7 (47% to win) — 2.7 points clear of GAST's market line of -1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #106 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| GAST | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.2 (#97) | CORE overall | -33.3 (#129) |
| -5 / +5 | offense / defense | -22 / +12 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 0.90 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →