Georgia vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsAUB
- Q4 2:19UGARiley Ridley 14 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)17–40
- Q4 6:13AUBKerryon Johnson 55 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–40
- Q4 10:06AUBDaniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q3 5:23UGARodrigo Blankenship 47 Yd Field Goal 10–30
- Q3 8:12AUBRyan Davis 32 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–30
- Q3 11:57AUBJarrett Stidham 7 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–23
- Q2 4:09AUBDarius Slayton 42 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–16
- Q2 12:03AUBDaniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 1:20AUBDaniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 8:19AUBDaniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:21UGANick Chubb 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJake Fromm 13/28, 184 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNick Chubb 11 CAR, 27 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Wims 3 REC, 96 YDS
- PassJarrett Stidham 16/23, 214 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKerryon Johnson 32 CAR, 167 YDS
- RecKerryon Johnson 2 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:09AUB +18%
Darius Slayton 42 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)
- Q1 11:21UGA +18%
Nick Chubb 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
- Q3 11:57AUB +10%
Jarrett Stidham 7 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)
- Q2 12:03AUB +9%
Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 1:20AUB +8%
Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 8:19AUB +8%
Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Auburn?
Georgia 17, Auburn 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.
| UGA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 230 | Total yards | 488 |
| 184 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 237 |
| 13 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/29 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-75 | Penalties | 5-29 |
| 26:54 | Possession | 33:06 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:22 AUB punt on 4th & 2 at AUB 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:19UGARiley Ridley 14 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)17–40
- Q4 6:13AUBKerryon Johnson 55 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–40
- Q4 10:06AUBDaniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q3 5:23UGARodrigo Blankenship 47 Yd Field Goal 10–30
- Q3 8:12AUBRyan Davis 32 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–30
- Q3 11:57AUBJarrett Stidham 7 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–23
- Q2 4:09AUBDarius Slayton 42 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–16
- Q2 12:03AUBDaniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 1:20AUBDaniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 8:19AUBDaniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:21UGANick Chubb 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1988, UGA Elo 1957 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -3.6 (61% to win) — 6.1 points clear of AUB's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #100 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #31 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Georgia leads 64–52–6 · Georgia has won 9 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| UGA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +39.6 (#1) | CORE overall | +28.1 (#6) |
| +19 / -20 | offense / defense | +8 / -20 |
| 2.98 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 1.41 | allowed / drive | 1.26 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -10 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →