Ohio State vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 1:43IOWAToren Young 6 Yd Run (Miguel Recinos Kick)24–55
- Q4 4:37OSUJohnnie Dixon 22 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)24–48
- Q4 13:16IOWAMiguel Recinos 30 Yd Field Goal 17–48
- Q4 14:56IOWADrake Kulick 2 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–45
- Q3 2:30IOWAT.J. Hockenson 2 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–38
- Q2 0:30IOWANoah Fant 3 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–31
- Q2 3:06IOWANoah Fant 25 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–24
- Q2 10:22OSUJohnnie Dixon 44 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)17–17
- Q2 13:41IOWAT.J. Hockenson 10 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)10–17
- Q1 4:32OSUSean Nuernberger 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 9:19IOWAMiguel Recinos 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 12:42OSUTerry McLaurin 29 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:52IOWAAmani Hooker 30 Yd Interception Return (Miguel Recinos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJ.T. Barrett 18/34, 208 YDS, 3 TD, 4 INT
- RushJ.T. Barrett 14 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecJohnnie Dixon 4 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNate Stanley 20/31, 226 YDS, 5 TD
- RushAkrum Wadley 20 CAR, 118 YDS
- RecT.J. Hockenson 5 REC, 71 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:30IOWA +30%
Noah Fant 3 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)
- Q2 3:06IOWA +22%
Noah Fant 25 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)
- Q2 13:41IOWA +17%
T.J. Hockenson 10 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)
- Q2 10:22OSU +14%
Johnnie Dixon 44 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
- Q1 12:42OSU +12%
Terry McLaurin 29 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
- Q3 8:14IOWA +11%
Nathan Stanley punt for 47 yds for a touchback
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Iowa?
Ohio State 24, Iowa 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OSU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 487 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 244 |
| 163 | Rushing yards | 243 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 21/32 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-95 | Penalties | 5-34 |
| 25:09 | Possession | 34:51 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:51 IOWA punt on 4th & 1 at IOWA 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:43IOWAToren Young 6 Yd Run (Miguel Recinos Kick)24–55
- Q4 4:37OSUJohnnie Dixon 22 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)24–48
- Q4 13:16IOWAMiguel Recinos 30 Yd Field Goal 17–48
- Q4 14:56IOWADrake Kulick 2 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–45
- Q3 2:30IOWAT.J. Hockenson 2 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–38
- Q2 0:30IOWANoah Fant 3 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–31
- Q2 3:06IOWANoah Fant 25 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)17–24
- Q2 10:22OSUJohnnie Dixon 44 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)17–17
- Q2 13:41IOWAT.J. Hockenson 10 Yd pass from Nathan Stanley (Miguel Recinos Kick)10–17
- Q1 4:32OSUSean Nuernberger 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 9:19IOWAMiguel Recinos 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 12:42OSUTerry McLaurin 29 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:52IOWAAmani Hooker 30 Yd Interception Return (Miguel Recinos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1671, OSU Elo 2161 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA +17.2 (14% to win) — 3.8 points clear of IOWA's market line of +21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #7 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #3 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Ohio State leads 49–15–3 · Ohio State has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| OSU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +36.2 (#4) | CORE overall | +9.8 (#33) |
| +20 / -16 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 3.24 | points / drive | 2.17 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 1.32 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →