Ball State vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsOSU
- Q4 1:55OSUChris Henry Jr. 15 Yd pass from Tavien St. Clair (Cooper Peterson Kick)3–56
- Q4 14:16OSULegend Bey 25 Yd pass from Luke Fahey (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–49
- Q3 8:20OSUJa'Kobi Jackson 49 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–42
- Q3 11:29OSUBo Jackson 65 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:10OSUJeremiah Smith 3 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–28
- Q2 1:17BALLBrody Boehm 54 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 12:08OSUJulian Sayin 3 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:23OSUDevin McCuin 17 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:47OSUJeremiah Smith 48 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Ohio State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
This one was over early. Ohio State routs Ball State, 56-3 at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State led from start to finish and never let Ball State within striking distance. Julian Sayin threw for 320 yards on 25 attempts with three touchdowns and lost 9 yards on three carries, though one of them reached the end zone.
- PassKeldric Luster 18/33, 89 YDS, 1 INT
- RushElijah Jackson 2 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecElisha Durham 1 REC, 26 YDS
- PassJulian Sayin 21/25, 320 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBo Jackson 9 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Smith 8 REC, 151 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Ohio State?
Ball State 3, Ohio State 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| BALL | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 165 | Total yards | 671 |
| 120 | Passing yards | 434 |
| 45 | Rushing yards | 237 |
| 13 | First downs | 32 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/37 | Comp/Att | 31/37 |
| 3.2 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 9-81 |
| 28:22 | Possession | 31:38 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:05 BALL punt on 4th & 4 at OSU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:55OSUChris Henry Jr. 15 Yd pass from Tavien St. Clair (Cooper Peterson Kick)3–56
- Q4 14:16OSULegend Bey 25 Yd pass from Luke Fahey (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–49
- Q3 8:20OSUJa'Kobi Jackson 49 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–42
- Q3 11:29OSUBo Jackson 65 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:10OSUJeremiah Smith 3 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–28
- Q2 1:17BALLBrody Boehm 54 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 12:08OSUJulian Sayin 3 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:23OSUDevin McCuin 17 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:47OSUJeremiah Smith 48 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1925, BALL Elo 1173 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -40.5 (100% to win) — 10.0 points clear of BALL's market line of -50.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BALL | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.5 (#135) | CORE overall | +33.9 (#1) |
| -16 / +6 | offense / defense | +15 / -19 |
| 0.27 | points / drive | 4.67 |
| 4.67 | allowed / drive | 0.27 |
| 55% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Julian Sayin produced 10 of Ohio State's 17 explosive plays
Ohio State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
The big plays only went one way
Ohio State produced 17 plays of 15+ yards to Ball State's 2, chiefly Julian Sayin (involved in 10), Jeremiah Smith (involved in 5) and Devin Mccuin (involved in 4). Ohio State scored on 67% of its drives to Ball State's 8%: Julian Sayin (24 pts), Jeremiah Smith (12 pts) and Bo Jackson (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Julian Sayin threw for 320 yards on 25 attempts with three touchdowns and lost 9 yards on three carries, though one of them reached the end zone, with that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in 10 plays of 15 yards or more. Jeremiah Smith ran one times for 5 yards and caught eight passes for 151 yards, two of them for touchdowns, including two third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Bo Jackson ran nine times for 83 yards and one score and caught one pass for 13 yards. For Ball State, Keldric Luster threw for 89 yards on 33 attempts and ran nine times for 10 yards — two third-down conversions. TJ Horton caught four passes for 6 yards. Elijah Jackson ran two times for 20 yards and caught one pass for 5 yards. Tarvos Alford was the disruptive one for Ohio State: 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 3.5 tackles.
What Ball State has to fix
The problems had names: Keldric Luster (1 interception).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Tarvos Alford (0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 3.5 tackles) for Ohio State and Cedric Franklin II (1 INT, 1 tackle) for Ball State.
How it unfolded
Ohio State struck first through Julian Sayin, led 28-3 at the half and Ohio State got the final points on a late touchdown by T.St. Clair.
How it graded
The closing line had Ohio State -50.5. Ohio State covered. The total was 55.5; the teams combined for 59, an over. Julian Sayin accounted for 24 of Ohio State's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Ohio State cleared the bar with room to spare; Ball State goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →