#28Sedrick Alexander

RB·Vanderbilt·20251.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Sedrick Alexander is a Explosive Back for Vanderbilt. Sedrick's 2025 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 125 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sedrick Alexander's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

570 Rush yards11 Rush TD106 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions200 Rec yards4 Rec TD10.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency88
Volume45
Explosiveness48
Consistency67
Receiving64

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (88th percentile).
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.59 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.25 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Georgia State (SP+ -25).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCharleston Southern	W45-3	—	12	83	6.9	0	1	26	1	0.54
2	@Virginia Tech	W44-20	-10.1	10	73	7.3	2	—	—	—	0.63
3	@South Carolina	W31-7	5.9	13	41	3.2	1	2	26	1	0.58
4	vsGeorgia State	W70-21	-24.5	3	13	4.3	1	1	10	1	1.25
5	vsUtah State	W55-35	-3.1	8	33	4.1	0	1	5	0	0.26
6	@Alabama	L14-30	14.8	4	76	19.0	1	3	22	1	1.19
8	vsLSU	W31-24	10.3	14	45	3.2	1	2	16	0	0.18
9	vsMissouri	W17-10	14.4	10	27	2.7	0	—	—	—	-0.24
10	@Texas	L31-34	16.2	5	11	2.2	0	1	1	0	-0.49
11	vsAuburn	W45-38	11.6	10	39	3.9	2	1	13	0	0.38
13	vsKentucky	W45-17	1.8	4	7	1.8	0	4	59	0	0.26
14	@Tennessee	W45-24	15.0	10	115	11.5	3	0	3	0	0.85
20	vsIowa	L27-34	19.7	3	7	2.3	0	3	19	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

15.7%

Passing plays

5.5%

Rushing plays

26.8%

Standard downs

17.7%

Passing downs

10.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.62
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.79 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.