#7Ryquell Armstead

RB·Temple·2018 20162.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Ryquell Armstead is a 2-year Explosive Back for Temple. Ryquell's 2016 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 158 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ryquell Armstead's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

919 Rush yards14 Rush TD156 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

5 Receptions41 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency73
Volume51
Explosiveness58
Consistency31
Receiving15

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency31th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Charlotte (SP+ -21).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsArmy	L13-28	-9.9	16	77	4.8	1	—	—	—	0.11
2	vsStony Brook	W38-0	—	14	48	3.4	1	—	—	—	0.04
3	@Penn State	L27-34	19.0	2	-4	-2.0	0	1	2	0	-0.71
4	vsCharlotte	W48-20	-20.9	5	33	6.6	2	2	13	0	0.81
5	vsSMU	W45-20	-10.8	15	159	10.6	2	—	—	—	0.64
6	@Memphis	L27-34	7.7	5	12	2.4	1	—	—	—	-0.08
7	@UCF	W26-25	-2.2	14	78	5.6	0	—	—	—	0.14
8	vsSouth Florida	W46-30	9.8	20	210	10.5	2	—	—	—	0.53
9	vsCincinnati	W34-13	-3.6	18	61	3.4	2	—	—	—	0.14
10	@UConn	W21-0	-11.6	20	133	6.7	0	—	—	—	0.33
13	vsEast Carolina	W37-10	-9.0	10	35	3.5	2	—	—	—	0.33
14	@Navy	W34-10	6.8	10	76	7.6	1	1	19	0	0.64
1	vsWake Forest	L26-34	-0.6	7	1	0.1	0	1	7	0	-0.53

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.8%

Passing plays

1.5%

Rushing plays

31.8%

Standard downs

22.7%

Passing downs

8.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.21
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Temple	2.9	0.410	—	63.6
2018	Temple	2.9	0.320	-0.09	66.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.