#1Rodney Smith

RB·Minnesota·2019 20162.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Rodney Smith is a 2-year Featured Back for Minnesota. Rodney's 2016 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 261 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rodney Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1158 Rush yards16 Rush TD240 Carries4.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

23 Receptions188 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.2 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Kick returns263 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency18
Volume84
Explosiveness36
Consistency38
Receiving47

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency38th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.61 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Maryland (SP+ -1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	EPA/play
1	vsOregon State	W30-23	-4.6	25	125	5.0	2	1	2	0.15
2	vsIndiana State	W58-28	—	17	74	4.4	1	1	14	0.11
4	vsColorado State	W31-24	0.8	17	99	5.8	2	1	15	0.38
5	@Penn State	L26-29	19.0	23	104	4.5	0	4	39	0.11
6	vsIowa	L7-14	10.3	11	44	4.0	0	2	3	-0.24
7	@Maryland	W31-10	-0.6	18	144	8.0	2	1	10	0.61
8	vsRutgers	W34-32	-14.9	22	111	5.0	1	1	27	0.35
9	@Illinois	W40-17	-6.7	20	100	5.0	2	2	19	0.25
10	vsPurdue	W44-31	-11.0	24	153	6.4	3	2	10	0.26
11	@Nebraska	L17-24	10.3	17	53	3.1	1	3	17	-0.13
12	vsNorthwestern	W29-12	2.9	16	32	2.0	1	3	6	-0.16
13	@Wisconsin	L17-31	16.1	13	45	3.5	0	1	25	-0.14
1	vsWashington State	W17-12	6.2	17	74	4.4	1	1	1	-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.3%

Passing plays

7.6%

Rushing plays

44.3%

Standard downs

34.4%

Passing downs

19.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.10
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2019 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Minnesota	2.4	0.280	—	66.4
2019	Minnesota	1.8	0.250	-0.03	54.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.