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Minnesota

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Big Ten·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1510#65
SP+
9.6#34
FPI
2.3
AP
NR
Nextvs Akron · Wk 3Win prob 88%Model -18.7
Talent #41 (728.8)Recruiting class #2865% production returning

Roster · 113 players

FR 31SO 22JR 24SR 36
#PlayerPosClHtWt
5Drake LindseyQBJR6'5"230
6Max ShikenjanskiQBSR6'2"185
12Michael MerdingerQBJR6'1"205
14Dylan WittkeQBSR6'1"215
15Owen LansuQBFR6'1"195
16Brady PalmerQBFR6'2"210
1Darius TaylorRBSR6'0"215
2A.J. TurnerRBSR6'0"200
9Xavier FordRBSO5'10"210
20Ryan EstradaRBFR5'10"190
21Grant WashingtonRBSO5'10"205
22Jaron ThomasRBSO6'0"225
23TJ ThomasRBJR5'8"190
26Zeke BatesRBFR6'0"220
28Niko CastilloRBFR6'1"235
3Perry ThompsonWRJR6'3"220
7Bradley MartinoWRSO6'3"190
8Jalen SmithWRJR6'1"210
11Javon TracyWRSR6'0"205
13Noah JenningsWRSR6'0"190
18Donielle HayesWRSR6'0"190
24Braiden StevensWRFR5'8"170
25Zion SteptoeWRSR5'11"190
81Josiah DozierWRFR6'1"190
84Hayden MooreWRFR6'1"205
85Rico BlassingameWRFR6'1"185
89Quayd HendryxWRFR5'11"180
4Roman VossTEFR6'4"235
19Pierce WalshTESR6'4"250
44George RohlTEFR6'6"245
82Julian JohnsonTEJR6'6"260
83Sam PetersTESR6'4"250
86Gabe WeaverTEFR6'5"240
87Kaden HelmsTESR6'4"240
88Jacob SimpsonTEJR6'4"245
50Nathan RoyOLJR6'5"305
51Daniel ShippOLSO6'5"295
55Jerome WilliamsOLSR6'4"325
56Brett CarrollOLJR6'5"320
57Aaron ThomasOLFR6'6"300
58Jaden BallOLJR6'5"310
59Tony NelsonOLSR6'6"325
60Kaveon LeeOLSO6'5"320
65Greg JohnsonOLSR6'6"325
66Beckett SchreiberOLFR6'5"295
68Bennett WarrenOLJR6'7"300
69Gavin MeierOLFR6'5"305
71Lucas TielschOLFR6'7"320
75Mark HandyOLSO6'7"320
77Nick SpenceOLSO6'6"300
78Ashton BeersOLSR6'6"320
79Andrew TroutOLFR6'7"300
0Anthony SmithDLSR6'6"280
1Jaxon HowardDLSR6'4"260
3TJ Bush Jr.DLSR6'3"265
11Karter MenzDLSR6'5"240
33Rhett HlavackaDLSO6'5"260
41Anthony CharlesDLFR6'5"210
45Sam MacyDLJR6'5"250
47Enoch AtewogbolaDLSO6'4"255
48Aaden AytchDLFR6'3"240
55Jaylin HicksDLJR6'3"270
56Jay'Quan StubbsDLSO6'4"285
70Naquan CrowderDLSR6'2"330
88Josiah AnyansiDLFR6'3"260
90Xion ChapmanDLSR6'3"305
91Howie JohnsonDLFR6'3"300
92Sid KabaDLSR6'2"305
93Riley SunramDLJR6'5"305
94Mo SaineDLJR6'4"275
95Colin HansenDLSO6'7"265
96Abu TarawallieDLSO6'3"290
97Jeremiah BensonDLFR6'3"280
98Adam KissayiDLJR6'8"255
99Theorin RandleDLSR6'2"300
2Emmanuel KarmoLBSO6'2"235
6Maverick BaranowskiLBSR6'2"230
16Hudson DunnLBFR6'0"220
19Joey GerlachLBSR6'3"225
29Andrew MarshallLBSR6'2"235
32Angel LucianoLBFR6'1"210
35Nate ClevelandLBSO6'2"225
44Ethan StendelLBSO6'3"240
46Mason CarrierLBJR6'3"235
49Matt KingsburyLBSR6'3"235
4Zack HardenDBSO6'1"210
5Aydan WestDBSO6'0"195
7Aidan GousbyDBSR6'0"190
8Mike GeraldDBJR6'0"190
9Garrison MonroeDBSR6'0"205
13Zahir RainerDBJR5'9"190
14Kerry BrownDBSR5'10"190
15Samuel MaduDBJR6'1"180
17John NestorDBSR6'1"210
18Rhyland KellyDBSR6'1"200
20Parker KnutsonDBSR6'0"190
21Naiim ParrishDBSO5'11"180
22Mekhai SmithDBJR6'2"215
23Lamont HamiltonDBFR5'10"170
24Chance PayneDBFR5'10"185
25Justin HopkinsDBFR5'11"190
26Elisha WestDBJR5'10"195
27Simon SeidlDBJR5'10"190
28Trason RichardsonDBFR6'0"190
31Jordan LampkinsDBFR6'0"190
36Tavian WhiteDBFR5'11"180
13Luke DrzewieckiPKSR6'0"186
36Daniel JacksonPKSO5'10"175
92Beckham SunderlandPKSR6'2"215
37Zachary RobbinsPSO6'3"220
42Tom WestonPSR6'3"220
52Alan SoukupLSJR6'1"210
53Jakob LutzLSSO6'0"205

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
36.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
22.5
scoring defense
Differential
+13.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
393.5#78
Yards / play
5.9#77
Passing yards / game
313.5#23
Rushing yards / game
80.0#134
First downs / game
21.0#65
3rd down %
50.0%#33
4th down %
75.0%#31
Time of possession
33:03#31
Defense
Yards allowed / game
294.5#51
Yards / play allowed
5.3#82
Pass yards allowed / game
143.0#29
Rush yards allowed / game
151.5#102
3rd down % allowed
39.1%#85
Sacks
2#106
Tackles for loss
15#22
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
0#69
Takeaways
1#109
Giveaways
1#21
Penalties / game
7.0#76
Penalty yards / game
62.5#92

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

run-leaning

Minnesota runs it: P.J. Fleck's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 124th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 114th at running it.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −36.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Minnesota has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #124
    projected
  • Offenserunning it
    #114
    projected
  • Offensethe push the line gets
    #113
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
6.3 – 5.7
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
5.3
of 10 games
Bowl odds
71%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
88%
vs Akron
Toughest
8%
vs Indiana

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 26% chance
Likeliest finish 6-6 (26%)Bowl eligible 71% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBDrake Lindsey
+14.3 EPA
WRJavon Tracy, Jalen Smith +2
+13.7 EPA
RBDarius Taylor, A.J. Turner +1
+2.5 EPA
TEKaden Helms, Pierce Walsh +2
-0.3 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBDrake Lindsey
~$661K
EPA +14.30.220/play65 snaps
RBDarius Taylor
~$238K
EPA +7.30.304/play24 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1324th#105
Def0.1923rd#107
Explosiveness
Off1.1119th#112
Def1.2155th#62
Field position
Off67.020th#110
Def80.51st#138
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off3.9242nd#80
Def4.0919th#112
Turnovers
Won 1Lost 1
Margin 0

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.2129th#98
Off · rush
0.0527th#101

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0525th#104
Def0.266th#130
Passing
Off0.2128th#100
Def0.595th#131

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.12#133
2nd-level / open-field
0.45 / 0.61
Power / stuff (off)
66.7% / 29.0%
Havoc — total (def)
17.8%#52
Havoc — front 7 / DB
16.1% / 1.7%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.16
Def0.22
Pass downs
Off0.04
Def0.14

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.22#30-0.47#1380.85#25
Defense0.13#1180.44#1230.80#123

Elo Trajectory

Eastern IllinoisFinal
Elo rating 1510 → 1452-58 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1123rd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.0363rd
  • Offense success rate49%69th
  • Defense success rate allowed34%66th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs56%82nd
  • Offense success — passing downs29%28th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs35%83rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs31%31st

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.08th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.422nd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8918th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.838th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.14th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.467th
  • Offense highlight yards0.4714th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.6352nd
  • Offense power success0.6331st
  • Defense power success allowed0.3393rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.276th
  • Defense stuff rate0.3296th

Third down

  • Third down conversion50%77th
  • Third down distance faced6.177th
  • Third down conversion allowed39%44th
  • Third down distance forced7.038th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0340th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1678th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.7513th
  • Points per drive allowed5.02nd
  • Average starting field position2633rd
  • Opponent starting field position1899th
  • Available yards gained44%36th
  • Available yards allowed73%9th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
  • Points per scoring opportunity0.757th
  • Points allowed per opportunity5.05th
  • Three-and-out rate25%46th
  • Three-and-outs forced11%17th

Roster

  • Returning usage68%81st
  • Returning EPA11455th
  • Team talent composite72971st
  • Recruiting class rank28.080th
  • Recruiting class points22780th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.130#105 · below avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.209#100
Rush EPA/play
+0.048#104
Explosiveness
1.110#112
Pts/opportunity
3.92#80
Success rate
49.0%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.161 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.191#107 · below avg
Havoc rate (total)
17.8%#52
Front-7 havoc
16.1%
DB havoc
1.7%
Big play rate allowed
1.209#62
Success rate allowed
45.2%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

36.0 PPG offense, 22.5 allowed — +13.5 margin/game
Points per game
36.0
Points allowed/game
22.5
Scoring margin/game
+13.5
Turnover margin
+0won 1 · lost 1
Production returning
65%
Talent rank (247)
#41

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE24thEXPLOSIVENESS19thFINISHING42thFIELD POS20thDEFENSE23thHAVOC63th50th100th
Offense
24th
Explosiveness
19th
Finishing
42th
Field Pos
20th
Defense
23th
Havoc
63th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-12.8
#114
Offense
-4.7
#96
Defense
+8.1
#122
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 8 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.755.00
Starting field positionown 26.4own 18.0
Available yards44.2%72.8%
Scoring opportunities100.0%100.0%
Points per opportunity0.755.00
Three-and-out rate25.0%11.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
81.8%
Expected, given the spots
53.4%
Over expected
+28.4
Fourth down vs peers
-8
Fourth down vs the model
-17
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Minnesota is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Minnesota in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Michigan StateSP+ +1.0
Off EPA/play +0.138Def EPA/play +0.192Elo 1468
Match
100%
WisconsinSP+ -1.5
Off EPA/play +0.114Def EPA/play +0.177Elo 1475
Match
99%
KentuckySP+ +8.5
Off EPA/play +0.155Def EPA/play +0.178Elo 1476
Match
98%
RutgersSP+ -3.6
Off EPA/play +0.124Def EPA/play +0.234Elo 1372
Match
98%
UABSP+ -16.0
Off EPA/play +0.162Def EPA/play +0.164Elo 1411
Match
97%
South FloridaSP+ -3.1
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.146Elo 1679
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +2.8, #60 of 1282016: +3.8, #51 of 1282017: -10.0, #96 of 1302018: -0.3, #66 of 1302019: +22.3, #11 of 1302020: -11.7, #98 of 1242021: +12.4, #30 of 1302022: +8.6, #38 of 1312023: -5.6, #88 of 1332024: +15.0, #23 of 1342025: -10.1, #96 of 1362026: -12.8, #114 of 138
20152026
Now -12.8 · #114 of 138Best +22.3 in 2019Worst -12.8 in 2026

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.0-0.0
20258-55-4
62%
6.4+1.6
20248-55-4
62%
8.2-0.2
20236-73-6
46%
6.3-0.3
20229-45-4
69%
9.7-0.7
20219-46-3
69%
10.1-1.1
20203-43-4
43%
3.3-0.3
201911-27-2
85%
10.2+0.8
20187-63-6
54%
7.1-0.1
20175-72-7
42%
4.9+0.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.2%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 4.6-7.4.

If they finish with…

61%
2 losses
2.0%
3 losses
0.0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

down 4.1 points since preseason.

  • At 3 losses they are 2.0% where the average Big Ten team is 12%.
  • The Big Ten takes 2.71 bids in an average season, and four or more in 18%.

Minnesota’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11at Penn State1.3
  • wk4at Washington0.8
  • wk5vs Michigan0.7
  • wk8vs Iowa0.7
  • wk10vs UCLA0.6
  • wk13at Wisconsin0.5

Who to root for

Games Minnesota is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk9Nevada over UCLA0.2
  • wk4Eastern Michigan over Lindenwood0.1
  • wk9Air Force over UConn0.1
  • wk12Western Kentucky over Liberty0.1
  • wk11Duke over Miami0.1
  • wk3TCU over Arkansas State0.1
The full playoff picture →

Big Ten

0-0 in league play, projected 2.7-6.316 of 18 by title odds
0.1%
Wins the Big Ten
0.4%
Reaches the title game

The Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk9Minnesota at Indiana1.0

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →

If not the playoff, then

29%
Bowl eligible
26%
Placed in a bowl
0.2%
In the playoff
74%
Season over in November

Minnesota is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • LA Bowl4.5%
  • GameAbove Sports Bowl3.8%
  • Xbox Bowl3.2%
  • Rate Bowl2.9%
  • Pinstripe Bowl2.1%
  • Salute to Veterans Bowl1.8%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 5 have sent Minnesota a player since 2010 — 12 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Minnesota's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
BolingbrookIL30
DutchtownGA30
Edna KarrLA20
EnsworthTN20
MarshallTX20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.