#7Jordan Waters

RB·Duke·2023

Jordan Waters is a Explosive Back for Duke. Jordan's 2023 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 163 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Waters's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

819 Rush yards12 Rush TD153 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions139 Rec yards0 Rec TD15.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume60
Explosiveness48
Consistency56
Receiving34

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency56th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.35 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Lafayette.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsClemson	W28-7	10.5	11	63	5.7	1	3	46	0	0.35
2	vsLafayette	W42-7	—	11	112	10.2	2	—	—	—	0.81
3	vsNorthwestern	W38-14	-1.3	10	65	6.5	2	1	10	0	0.49
4	@UConn	W41-7	-15.6	7	18	2.6	2	1	20	0	0.58
5	vsNotre Dame	L14-21	20.1	13	45	3.5	1	—	—	—	0.01
7	vsNC State	W24-3	7.4	13	123	9.5	1	—	—	—	0.17
8	@Florida State	L20-38	19.4	13	39	3.0	0	1	8	0	-0.12
9	@Louisville	L0-23	8.0	5	23	4.6	0	—	—	—	-0.12
10	vsWake Forest	W24-21	-7.9	18	76	4.2	1	—	—	—	0.14
11	@North Carolina	L45-47	7.4	20	113	5.7	2	—	—	—	0.34
12	@Virginia	L27-30	-10.8	12	45	3.8	0	—	—	—	-0.35
13	vsPittsburgh	W30-19	-7.3	9	31	3.4	0	1	46	0	0.23
20	vsTroy	W17-10	9.8	11	66	6.0	0	2	9	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.1%

Passing plays

3.9%

Rushing plays

36.1%

Standard downs

24.3%

Passing downs

14.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.61 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).