#26Jaret Patterson

RB·Buffalo·2020 2019 20182.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jaret Patterson is a 3-year Explosive Back for Buffalo. Jaret's 2018 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 183 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Jaret's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jaret Patterson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1013 Rush yards14 Rush TD183 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions62 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency43
Volume54
Explosiveness50
Consistency0
Receiving20

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.26 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Bowling Green (SP+ -22).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsDelaware State	W48-10	—	9	34	3.8	1	—	—	—	0.09
2	@Temple	W36-29	2.9	1	2	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.40
3	vsEastern Michigan	W35-28	-2.0	9	35	3.9	0	—	—	—	-0.48
4	@Rutgers	W42-13	-12.3	14	104	7.4	2	—	—	—	0.35
5	vsArmy	L13-42	-1.5	2	3	1.5	0	—	—	—	-0.40
6	@Central Michigan	W34-24	-20.0	18	121	6.7	1	2	10	0	0.33
7	vsAkron	W24-6	-19.3	17	91	5.4	1	2	10	0	0.23
8	@Toledo	W31-17	2.0	20	90	4.5	2	—	—	—	-0.07
10	vsMiami (OH)	W51-42	-0.7	23	96	4.2	1	—	—	—	0.06
11	vsKent State	W48-14	-20.4	18	187	10.4	2	—	—	—	0.46
12	@Ohio	L17-52	4.0	8	23	2.9	0	—	—	—	-0.27
13	@Bowling Green	W44-14	-22.0	11	88	8.0	2	—	—	—	0.86
14	vsNorthern Illinois	L29-30	-2.7	18	72	4.0	1	2	19	0	0.33
1	vsTroy	L32-42	2.6	15	67	4.5	1	1	23	0	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.9%

Passing plays

2.1%

Rushing plays

31.9%

Standard downs

21.4%

Passing downs

13.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 33 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Buffalo	2.7	0.340	—	63.6
2019	Buffalo	5.6	0.370	+0.03	118.0
2020	Buffalo	8.7	0.540	+0.17	86.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.