California vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 9:20SDSULucky Sutton 3 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–34
- Q3 5:59SDSUChris Johnson 97 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–27
- Q3 11:03SDSUDwayne McDougle 35 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–20
- Q2 0:00SDSUGabriel Plascencia 41 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 6:20SDSUGabriel Plascencia 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q2 11:42SDSUJordan Napier 6 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CAL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 17/38, 208 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLJ Johnson Jr. 10 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecTrond Grizzell 4 REC, 91 YDS
- PassJayden Denegal 15/18, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLucky Sutton 12 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Napier 9 REC, 151 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:01CAL +6%
Hunter Green punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 23
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. San Diego State?
California 0, San Diego State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CAL | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Total yards | 321 |
| 224 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 65 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 17 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/41 | Comp/Att | 15/18 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 7-75 |
| 29:42 | Possession | 30:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:41 SDSU punt on 4th & 9 at CAL 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:20SDSULucky Sutton 3 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–34
- Q3 5:59SDSUChris Johnson 97 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–27
- Q3 11:03SDSUDwayne McDougle 35 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–20
- Q2 0:00SDSUGabriel Plascencia 41 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 6:20SDSUGabriel Plascencia 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q2 11:42SDSUJordan Napier 6 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1283, CAL Elo 1586 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +9.7 (27% to win) — 4.3 points clear of SDSU's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #19 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →The series is level at 5–5 · 30% have been one-possession games
| CAL | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#85) | CORE overall | +11.6 (#35) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / -14 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.88 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 1.14 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →