Southern vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Southern1-2

▸0027

Arkansas-Pine Bluff0-1

00

Final

Golden Lion StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	10	10	7	0	27
ARKA	0	0	0	0	0

SOUTTeam statsARKA

488Total yards221

258Pass105

230Rush116

27First downs17

3-93rd down7-18

2Turnovers4

28:22Possession31:38

Scoring plays

• Q3 13:48SOUTGary Quarles 33 Yd Run (Joshua Griffin Kick)27–0
• Q2 0:09SOUTJoshua Griffin 42 Yd Field Goal 20–0
• Q2 4:21SOUTAugust Pitre 30 Yd pass from Harold Blood (Joshua Griffin Kick)17–0
• Q1 3:44SOUTJoshua Griffin 22 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 11:18SOUTChandler Whitfield 42 Yd pass from Harold Blood (Joshua Griffin Kick)7–0

What the numbers say

• SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARKA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ARKA 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ARKA (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARKA 0%

Leaders

Southern

• PassJR Blood 18/20, 225 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushGary Quarles 15 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
• RecAugust Pitre III 4 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

• PassJalen Macon 8/12, 79 YDS
• RushKierstan Rogers 6 CAR, 49 YDS
• RecDaemon Dawkins 2 REC, 35 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.19

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 530 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Illinois vs Indiana State27-0WIowa State vs Northern Iowa30-9WLSU vs Mississippi State41-14WHouston Christian vs Prairie View A&M33-0WDuquesne vs Sacred Heart27-0

Fourth downs

14 calls

ARKA gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 3/6 · ARKA 4/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Southern vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff?

Southern 27, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked ARKA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

ARKA

54%

Success rate

35%

0.53

EPA / pass

-0.06

0.16

EPA / rush

-0.17

58%

Early-down success

32%

57%

Pass success

31%

52%

Rush success

37%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

23%

40%

Pass rate

38%

9.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

SOUT

9.6 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

ARKA

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		ARKA
488	Total yards	221
258	Passing yards	105
230	Rushing yards	116
27	First downs	17
3-9	3rd down	7-18
0-1	4th down	0-1
20/25	Comp/Att	13/21
10.3	Yards per pass	5.0
5.3	Yards per rush	2.4
2	Turnovers	4
8-68	Penalties	4-47
28:22	Possession	31:38

Fourth downs

14 calls

SOUT

3/6 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

ARKA

4/7 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 14:47 ARKA punt on 4th & 1 at ARKA 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ARKA 0/13 scoring drives

SOUTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 47Q1

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 12Q1

SOUTTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

ARKAPUNT6 pl, -2 yds· own 40Q1

SOUTFG12 pl, 65 yds· own 30Q1

ARKADOWNS14 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 14Q2

ARKAMISS7 pl, 54 yds· own 30Q2

SOUTTD6 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

ARKAPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTFG7 pl, 66 yds· own 10Q2

ARKAUncateg0 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

ARKAFUM3 pl, 9 yds· own 24Q3

SOUTTD1 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q3

ARKAFUM7 pl, 31 yds· own 28Q3

SOUTFUM6 pl, 28 yds· own 41Q3

ARKAFUM9 pl, 0 yds· own 31Q3

SOUTDOWNS6 pl, 32 yds· own 29Q3

ARKAINT3 pl, 5 yds· own 39Q3

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q3

ARKAPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 5Q4

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 19Q4

ARKAPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 31Q4

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 29 yds· own 30Q4

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q4

SOUTEND7 pl, 43 yds· own 36Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 13:48SOUTGary Quarles 33 Yd Run (Joshua Griffin Kick)27–0
• Q2 0:09SOUTJoshua Griffin 42 Yd Field Goal 20–0
• Q2 4:21SOUTAugust Pitre 30 Yd pass from Harold Blood (Joshua Griffin Kick)17–0
• Q1 3:44SOUTJoshua Griffin 22 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 11:18SOUTChandler Whitfield 42 Yd pass from Harold Blood (Joshua Griffin Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →