Ohio vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 6:45OHIOAnthony Tyus III 21 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–3
- Q3 3:35OHIOGianni Spetic 53 Yd Field Goal 31–3
- Q3 12:39OHIOColeman Owen 25 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–3
- Q2 0:52OHIOMason Williams 21 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–3
- Q2 5:29OHIOParker Navarro 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:16OHIOParker Navarro 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:53M-OHDom Dzioban 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassParker Navarro 20/27, 235 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAnthony Tyus III 27 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RecColeman Owen 5 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrett Gabbert 14/25, 127 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKeyon Mozee 11 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecJavon Tracy 7 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 462 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:16OHIO +19%
Parker Navarro 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)
- Q2 5:29OHIO +18%
Parker Navarro 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)
- Q2 0:52OHIO +10%
Mason Williams 21 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Gianni Spetic Kick)
- Q1 8:53M-OH +8%
Dom Dzioban 29 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Miami (OH)?
Ohio 38, Miami (OH) 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked M-OH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OHIO | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 467 | Total yards | 189 |
| 235 | Passing yards | 127 |
| 232 | Rushing yards | 62 |
| 32 | First downs | 11 |
| 6-8 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/27 | Comp/Att | 14/25 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 2-17 |
| 37:35 | Possession | 22:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:53 M-OH field goal on 4th & 1 at OHIO 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:45OHIOAnthony Tyus III 21 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–3
- Q3 3:35OHIOGianni Spetic 53 Yd Field Goal 31–3
- Q3 12:39OHIOColeman Owen 25 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–3
- Q2 0:52OHIOMason Williams 21 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–3
- Q2 5:29OHIOParker Navarro 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:16OHIOParker Navarro 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:53M-OHDom Dzioban 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1590, OHIO Elo 1585 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects M-OH -0.2 (52% to win) — 2.3 points clear of OHIO's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #95 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Miami (OH) leads 33–30–1 · Ohio has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.2 (#51) | CORE overall | +1.4 (#63) |
| +2 / -2 | offense / defense | -1 / -3 |
| 2.38 | points / drive | 2.15 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →