James Madison vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsAPP
- Q4 10:39APPMichael Hughes 41 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q3 1:13APPAhmani Marshall 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)20–31
- Q3 7:56JMUNoe Ruelas 52 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 0:40APPMichael Hetzel 9 Yd Punt Return (Michael Hughes Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:23APPMakai Jackson 64 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–17
- Q2 2:49JMUNoe Ruelas 46 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 7:33APPEli Wilson 4 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)14–10
- Q2 12:19APPMichael Hughes 23 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 14:08JMUJosh Phifer 37 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:03JMUYamir Knight 6 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAlonza Barnett III 22/37, 234 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushGeorge Pettaway 11 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecYamir Knight 6 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoey Aguilar 12/23, 217 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAhmani Marshall 24 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMakai Jackson 5 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:13APP +29%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q2 0:40APP +18%
Michael Hetzel 9 Yd Punt Return (Michael Hughes Kick)
- Q2 1:23APP +16%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 64 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q3 7:56JMU +11%
Noe Ruelas 52 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 7:33APP +9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q3 4:58APP +9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 11 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. App State?
James Madison 20, App State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| JMU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 362 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 217 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 22 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/37 | Comp/Att | 12/23 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-69 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 34:05 | Possession | 25:55 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:53 APP punt on 4th & 2 at APP 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:39APPMichael Hughes 41 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q3 1:13APPAhmani Marshall 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)20–31
- Q3 7:56JMUNoe Ruelas 52 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 0:40APPMichael Hetzel 9 Yd Punt Return (Michael Hughes Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:23APPMakai Jackson 64 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–17
- Q2 2:49JMUNoe Ruelas 46 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 7:33APPEli Wilson 4 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)14–10
- Q2 12:19APPMichael Hughes 23 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 14:08JMUJosh Phifer 37 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:03JMUYamir Knight 6 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1332, JMU Elo 1780 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP +15.5 (17% to win) — 8.5 points clear of JMU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #69 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →App State leads 6–3 · 44% have been one-possession games
| JMU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 (#52) | CORE overall | -13.3 (#112) |
| -5 / -9 | offense / defense | +0 / +13 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 1.32 | allowed / drive | 3.14 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →