Michigan vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsOSU
- Q4 0:45MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 0:30OSUJeremiah Smith 10 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–10
- Q2 2:15MICHDominic Zvada 54 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 12:37MICHKalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:14OSUJayden Fielding 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDavis Warren 9/16, 62 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKalel Mullings 32 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPeyton O'Leary 1 REC, 18 YDS
- PassWill Howard 19/33, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushQuinshon Judkins 12 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecCarnell Tate 6 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:45MICH +34%
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:30OSU +22%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q4 6:13MICH +21%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MICH 48
- Q4 6:13OSU +21%
Kalel Mullings run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line
- Q2 12:37MICH +17%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q2 2:15MICH +16%
Dominic Zvada 54 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Ohio State?
Michigan 13, Ohio State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MICH | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 234 | Total yards | 252 |
| 62 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 13 | First downs | 16 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/16 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 2-19 |
| 33:35 | Possession | 26:25 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:13 OSU punt on 4th & 1 at OSU 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:45MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 0:30OSUJeremiah Smith 10 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–10
- Q2 2:15MICHDominic Zvada 54 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 12:37MICHKalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:14OSUJayden Fielding 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2120, MICH Elo 1867 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -12.5 (80% to win) — 7.5 points clear of MICH's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #6 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #2 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Michigan leads 62–53–6 · 39% have been one-possession games
| MICH | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#43) | CORE overall | +43.5 (#1) |
| -5 / -12 | offense / defense | +25 / -19 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 0.97 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →