#20Kalel Mullings

RB·Michigan·20243.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kalel Mullings is a Featured Back for Michigan. Kalel's 2024 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 189 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kalel Mullings's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

948 Rush yards12 Rush TD185 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

6 Receptions35 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.8 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns74 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency65
Volume74
Explosiveness42
Consistency65
Receiving16

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Northwestern (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsFresno State	W30-10	-3.8	15	92	6.1	0	—	—	—	0.24
2	vsTexas	L12-31	24.1	6	25	4.2	0	—	—	—	-0.02
3	vsArkansas State	W28-18	-9.9	15	153	10.2	2	—	—	—	0.66
4	vsUSC	W27-24	11.9	17	159	9.4	2	1	2	0	0.64
5	vsMinnesota	W27-24	10.4	24	111	4.6	2	—	—	—	0.24
6	@Washington	L17-27	3.1	14	49	3.5	0	—	—	—	0.31
8	@Illinois	L7-21	9.6	19	87	4.6	1	1	8	0	0.52
9	vsMichigan State	W24-17	-4.6	13	18	1.4	0	—	—	—	-0.11
10	vsOregon	L17-38	26.0	8	16	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.16
11	@Indiana	L15-20	20.1	10	30	3.0	1	2	8	0	0.22
13	vsNorthwestern	W50-6	-8.2	12	92	7.7	3	2	17	0	0.69
14	@Ohio State	W13-10	31.2	32	116	3.6	1	—	—	—	-0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.9%

Passing plays

2.3%

Rushing plays

43.1%

Standard downs

29.7%

Passing downs

17.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.18
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.