Akron vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsOSU
- Q4 2:25OSUGabe Powers 29 Yd Interception Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)6–52
- Q4 10:16OSUCarnell Tate 34 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)6–45
- Q3 0:01OSUJames Peoples 4 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)6–38
- Q3 3:57AKRGarrison Smith 49 Yd Field Goal 6–31
- Q3 7:35OSULathan Ransom 27 Yd Fumble Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–31
- Q3 7:53OSUQuinshon Judkins 2 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–24
- Q2 4:30OSUJeremiah Smith 9 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–17
- Q2 11:23OSUJayden Fielding 40 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 2:44OSUJeremiah Smith 16 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:44AKRGarrison Smith 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTahj Bullock 9/13, 68 YDS
- RushTahj Bullock 14 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecJacob Newell 2 REC, 41 YDS
- PassWill Howard 17/28, 228 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTreVeyon Henderson 8 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecJeremiah Smith 6 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 371 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Ohio State?
Akron 6, Ohio State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| AKR | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 177 | Total yards | 404 |
| 130 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 47 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 11 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/29 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 7-45 |
| 34:03 | Possession | 25:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:57 AKR field goal on 4th & 1 at OSU 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:25OSUGabe Powers 29 Yd Interception Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)6–52
- Q4 10:16OSUCarnell Tate 34 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)6–45
- Q3 0:01OSUJames Peoples 4 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)6–38
- Q3 3:57AKRGarrison Smith 49 Yd Field Goal 6–31
- Q3 7:35OSULathan Ransom 27 Yd Fumble Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–31
- Q3 7:53OSUQuinshon Judkins 2 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–24
- Q2 4:30OSUJeremiah Smith 9 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–17
- Q2 11:23OSUJayden Fielding 40 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 2:44OSUJeremiah Smith 16 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:44AKRGarrison Smith 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1876, AKR Elo 1212 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -29 (96% to win) — 20.5 points clear of AKR's market line of -49.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AKR | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#118) | CORE overall | +43.5 (#1) |
| -10 / +7 | offense / defense | +25 / -19 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 2.58 | allowed / drive | 0.97 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →