New Mexico vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsTA&M
- Q4 1:10TA&MR. Bond 39 yd FG GOOD10–52
- Q4 7:35TA&MM. Johnson pass to M. Muhammad III for 12 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)10–49
- Q3 2:30TA&MC. Weigman pass to E. Stewart for 8 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)10–42
- Q3 6:09UNML. Drzewiecki 27 yd FG GOOD10–35
- Q2 1:27TA&MC. Weigman pass to N. Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)7–35
- Q2 5:30TA&ML. Moss run for 2 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)7–28
- Q2 8:03TA&MC. Weigman pass to N. Thomas for 34 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)7–21
- Q2 10:32UNMJ. Croskey-Merritt run for 27 yds for a TD (L. Drzewiecki KICK)7–14
- Q2 14:53TA&MC. Weigman pass to E. Stewart for 35 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)0–14
- Q1 5:00TA&MC. Weigman pass to N. Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.7 vs 3rd & 8.1
- PassDylan Hopkins 15/24, 115 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJacory Croskey-Merritt 11 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Hixon 6 REC, 42 YDS
- PassConner Weigman 18/23, 236 YDS, 5 TD
- RushAmari Daniels 7 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecEvan Stewart 8 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 370 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:00TA&M +8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
- Q2 10:32UNM +5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 27 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Texas A&M?
New Mexico 10, Texas A&M 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
| UNM | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 222 | Total yards | 411 |
| 131 | Passing yards | 277 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 18 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 3-7 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-114 | Penalties | 9-88 |
| 34:20 | Possession | 25:40 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:10 UNM punt on 4th & 12 at TA&M 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:10TA&MR. Bond 39 yd FG GOOD10–52
- Q4 7:35TA&MM. Johnson pass to M. Muhammad III for 12 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)10–49
- Q3 2:30TA&MC. Weigman pass to E. Stewart for 8 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)10–42
- Q3 6:09UNML. Drzewiecki 27 yd FG GOOD10–35
- Q2 1:27TA&MC. Weigman pass to N. Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)7–35
- Q2 5:30TA&ML. Moss run for 2 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)7–28
- Q2 8:03TA&MC. Weigman pass to N. Thomas for 34 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)7–21
- Q2 10:32UNMJ. Croskey-Merritt run for 27 yds for a TD (L. Drzewiecki KICK)7–14
- Q2 14:53TA&MC. Weigman pass to E. Stewart for 35 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)0–14
- Q1 5:00TA&MC. Weigman pass to N. Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1586, UNM Elo 1187 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -18.4 (88% to win) — 19.6 points clear of UNM's market line of -38. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNM | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#101) | CORE overall | +15.4 (#21) |
| +4 / +15 | offense / defense | +8 / -7 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.94 |
| 3.45 | allowed / drive | 1.16 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →