VMI vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

VMI

07

NC State1-1

▸0045

Final

Carter-Finley Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
VMI	0	0	7	0	7
NCSU	21	10	7	7	45

VMITeam statsNCSU

191Total yards498

176Pass264

15Rush234

10First downs26

1-103rd down10-14

1Turnovers0

20:57Possession38:52

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:45NCSUDemarcus Jones II 2 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–45
• Q3 2:25NCSUJulian Gray 82 Yd Kickoff Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)7–38
• Q3 2:36VMIEgypt Nelson 22 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Caden Beck Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:25NCSUDelbert Mimms III 1 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–31
• Q2 7:37NCSUBrayden Narveson 31 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 2:51NCSUBradley Rozner 16 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:07NCSURobert Kennedy 30 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:27NCSUDelbert Mimms III 1 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

NCSU −42.5

Against the number

VMI covered

line NCSU −42.5

What the numbers say

• VMI lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 35% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NCSU 100%50%VMI 100%

Kickoff137 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NCSU (top)VMI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NCSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NCSU −42.5

Closing total

51.0

Model line

—

Actual result

VMI 7 – 45 NCSU

Leaders

VMI

• PassCollin Shannon 14/24, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushRashad Raymond 6 CAR, 29 YDS
• RecEgypt Nelson 3 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD

NC State

• PassBrennan Armstrong 27/32, 264 YDS, 1 TD
• RushKendrick Raphael 16 CAR, 85 YDS
• RecJulian Gray 2 REC, 80 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

123

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NCSU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 371 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NCSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WAir Force vs San Diego State49-10

Fourth downs

11 calls

VMI gave up 1.6 points to the model on fourth down.VMI 2/6 · NCSU 2/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of VMI vs. NC State?

VMI 7, NC State 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

VMI

NCSU

35%

Success rate

61%

-0.11

EPA / pass

0.59

-0.34

EPA / rush

0.34

39%

Early-down success

58%

43%

Pass success

52%

22%

Rush success

68%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

33%

Stuffed rush rate

2%

61%

Pass rate

43%

5.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.3

VMI

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

46 scrimmage snaps

NCSU

5.3 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

VMI		NCSU
191	Total yards	498
176	Passing yards	264
15	Rushing yards	234
10	First downs	26
1-10	3rd down	10-14
0-0	4th down	1-1
14/24	Comp/Att	27/32
7.3	Yards per pass	8.3
0.7	Yards per rush	5.2
1	Turnovers	0
3-30	Penalties	6-61
20:57	Possession	38:52

Fourth downs

11 calls

VMI

2/6 with the model

−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

NCSU

2/4 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 7:51 VMI punt on 4th & 1 at VMI 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

VMI 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →NCSU 5/8 scoring drives

VMIPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

NCSUTD12 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1

VMITD3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

VMIPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1

NCSUTD4 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1

VMIPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 18Q1

NCSUFG17 pl, 83 yds· own 4Q1

VMIPUNT5 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q2

NCSUTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

VMIEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

NCSUPUNT9 pl, 49 yds· own 7Q3

VMIPUNT4 pl, 33 yds· own 6Q3

NCSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 24Q3

VMITD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

VMIPUNT7 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q3

NCSUTD12 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q4

VMIPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4

NCSUEND9 pl, 31 yds· midfieldQ4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:45NCSUDemarcus Jones II 2 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–45
• Q3 2:25NCSUJulian Gray 82 Yd Kickoff Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)7–38
• Q3 2:36VMIEgypt Nelson 22 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Caden Beck Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:25NCSUDelbert Mimms III 1 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–31
• Q2 7:37NCSUBrayden Narveson 31 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 2:51NCSUBradley Rozner 16 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:07NCSURobert Kennedy 30 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:27NCSUDelbert Mimms III 1 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →