Hawai'i vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsUNM
- Q4 0:06HAWSteven McBride 2 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–42
- Q4 6:54UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 14 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–42
- Q3 8:10UNMJeremiah Hixon 17 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:24HAWPofele Ashlock 18 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–28
- Q2 3:25UNMAndrew Henry 33 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:16UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:18HAWSteven McBride 12 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:14UNMRyan Davis 3 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:59UNMJeremiah Hixon 28 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HAW did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 4.3
- PassBrayden Schager 33/52, 345 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushLandon Sims 6 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecSteven McBride 5 REC, 75 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDylan Hopkins 20/25, 202 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAndrew Henry 13 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Hixon 3 REC, 62 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:16UNM +18%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q1 8:59UNM +18%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 28 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q1 2:14UNM +15%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q1 0:18HAW +15%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q2 0:24HAW +8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 18 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q2 3:25UNM +7%
Andrew Henry run for 33 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. New Mexico?
Hawai'i 21, New Mexico 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| HAW | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 403 | Total yards | 429 |
| 345 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 58 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 27 | First downs | 25 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 33/52 | Comp/Att | 20/26 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 10-110 |
| 25:45 | Possession | 34:15 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:59 HAW punt on 4th & 1 at HAW 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:06HAWSteven McBride 2 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–42
- Q4 6:54UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 14 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–42
- Q3 8:10UNMJeremiah Hixon 17 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:24HAWPofele Ashlock 18 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–28
- Q2 3:25UNMAndrew Henry 33 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:16UNMJacory Croskey-Merritt 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:18HAWSteven McBride 12 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:14UNMRyan Davis 3 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:59UNMJeremiah Hixon 28 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1065, HAW Elo 1118 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -0.3 (52% to win) — 2.3 points clear of UNM's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #114 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Hawai'i leads 17–11 · 21% have been one-possession games
| HAW | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.6 (#121) | CORE overall | -10.7 (#101) |
| -8 / +10 | offense / defense | +4 / +15 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 3.45 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +16 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →