Miami (OH) vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 7:56OHIOTyler Walton 1 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Gianni Spetic Kick)30–16
- Q4 11:13M-OHKevin Davis 46 Yd pass from Aveon Smith (Graham Nicholson Kick)30–9
- Q3 6:48M-OHAveon Smith 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)23–9
- Q3 11:22M-OHGraham Nicholson 32 Yd Field Goal 16–9
- Q2 1:21M-OHRashad Amos 1 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)13–9
- Q2 4:20M-OHGraham Nicholson 40 Yd Field Goal 6–9
- Q2 12:11M-OHGraham Nicholson 26 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q1 1:28OHIOGianni Spetic 33 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 9:57OHIOSieh Bangura 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic PAT blocked)0–6
How the model called it
- PassAveon Smith 7/11, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRashad Amos 21 CAR, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKevin Davis 3 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKurtis Rourke 25/39, 313 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSieh Bangura 9 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSam Wiglusz 5 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:21M-OH +24%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
- Q3 6:48M-OH +20%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
- Q1 9:57OHIO +13%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic PAT BLOCKED)
- Q3 11:22M-OH +12%
Graham Nicholson 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:48M-OH +9%
NICHOLSON, Graham PAT kick attempt is good, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MIA Chop Block on NANK, Charlie enforced 15 yards from the OHI3 to the OHI18. NO PLAY (…
- Q2 4:20M-OH +8%
Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Ohio?
Miami (OH) 30, Ohio 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| M-OH | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 291 | Total yards | 363 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 313 |
| 188 | Rushing yards | 50 |
| 14 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 7/11 | Comp/Att | 25/39 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 11-78 |
| 32:19 | Possession | 27:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:46 OHIO punt on 4th & 1 at OHIO 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:56OHIOTyler Walton 1 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Gianni Spetic Kick)30–16
- Q4 11:13M-OHKevin Davis 46 Yd pass from Aveon Smith (Graham Nicholson Kick)30–9
- Q3 6:48M-OHAveon Smith 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)23–9
- Q3 11:22M-OHGraham Nicholson 32 Yd Field Goal 16–9
- Q2 1:21M-OHRashad Amos 1 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)13–9
- Q2 4:20M-OHGraham Nicholson 40 Yd Field Goal 6–9
- Q2 12:11M-OHGraham Nicholson 26 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q1 1:28OHIOGianni Spetic 33 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 9:57OHIOSieh Bangura 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1528, M-OH Elo 1451 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -5.5 (65% to win) — 2.0 points clear of M-OH's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #49 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Miami (OH) leads 33–30–1 · Ohio has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| M-OH | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.3 (#75) | CORE overall | +1.0 (#57) |
| -9 / -7 | offense / defense | -5 / -6 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 1.18 | allowed / drive | 1.43 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →