Navy vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsTEM
- Q4 3:29TEMDante Wright 16 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (E.J. Warner Pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)18–32
- Q4 5:46NAVYNathan Kirkwood 45 Yd Field Goal 18–24
- Q4 9:09TEMJordan Smith 13 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)15–24
- Q4 14:56NAVYXavier Arline 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)15–17
- Q3 6:13NAVYEli Heidenreich 24 Yd pass from Xavier Arline (Xavier Arline Pass to Jayden Umbarger for Two-Point Conversion)8–17
- Q2 14:46TEMDavid Martin-Robinson 24 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:18TEMCamden Price 42 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:23TEMJordan Smith 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassXavier Arline 6/14, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- RushXavier Arline 30 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 2 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- PassE.J. Warner 27/33, 402 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushEdward Saydee 8 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecZae Baines 7 REC, 132 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,696 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:09TEM +42%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 13 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
- Q4 14:56NAVY +34%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q3 6:13NAVY +21%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 24 yds for a TD (Xavier Arline pass to Jayden Umbarger for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 14:46TEM +20%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
- Q1 11:23TEM +15%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 22 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
- Q4 5:46TEM +15%
Darvon Hubbard run for no gain to the TEM 25
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Temple?
Navy 18, Temple 32.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NAVY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NAVY | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 268 | Total yards | 448 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 402 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 46 |
| 13 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 6-9 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 6/14 | Comp/Att | 27/33 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-81 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 32:58 | Possession | 27:02 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:08 NAVY punt on 4th & 1 at NAVY 15. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:29TEMDante Wright 16 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (E.J. Warner Pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)18–32
- Q4 5:46NAVYNathan Kirkwood 45 Yd Field Goal 18–24
- Q4 9:09TEMJordan Smith 13 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)15–24
- Q4 14:56NAVYXavier Arline 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)15–17
- Q3 6:13NAVYEli Heidenreich 24 Yd pass from Xavier Arline (Xavier Arline Pass to Jayden Umbarger for Two-Point Conversion)8–17
- Q2 14:46TEMDavid Martin-Robinson 24 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:18TEMCamden Price 42 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:23TEMJordan Smith 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 948, NAVY Elo 1376 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM +14.7 (18% to win) — 7.7 points clear of NAVY's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #57 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Navy leads 11–9 · Navy has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#116) | CORE overall | -24.0 (#130) |
| -15 / +2 | offense / defense | -14 / +10 |
| 1.30 | points / drive | 1.54 |
| 1.78 | allowed / drive | 3.40 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -21 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →