#12Peyton Ramsey

QB·Northwestern·2020 20183.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Peyton Ramsey is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Northwestern. Peyton's 2020 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 361 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Peyton Ramsey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

171/281 Comp/Att1742 Pass yards12 Pass TD8 INT60.9% Comp %

Rushing

263 Rush yards3 Rush TD83 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat53
Consistency77
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Maryland (SP+ -0).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
8	vsMaryland	W43-3	-0.1	23/30	212	1	0	47	1	0.65
9	@Iowa	W21-20	16.3	11/18	130	0	1	26	0	0.32
10	vsNebraska	W21-13	7.7	16/27	169	2	2	28	0	0.32
11	@Purdue	W27-20	5.9	23/36	212	3	1	21	0	0.46
12	vsWisconsin	W17-7	26.5	23/44	203	2	0	6	0	-0.04
13	@Michigan State	L20-29	-2.4	20/42	219	0	2	-6	1	0.01
15	vsIllinois	W28-10	-5.4	7/12	82	1	0	47	0	0.34
16	vsOhio State	L10-22	28.4	24/37	224	0	2	44	0	0.10
1	vsAuburn	W35-19	12.6	24/35	291	3	0	50	1	0.64

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.9%

Passing plays

99.0%

Rushing plays

19.2%

Standard downs

44.0%

Passing downs

76.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Indiana	4.5	0.360	—	208.8
2020	Northwestern	3.4	0.363	+0.00	138.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.