#8Josh Johnson

RB·UL Monroe·20191.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Josh Johnson is a Explosive Back for UL Monroe. Josh's 2019 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 208 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1298 Rush yards11 Rush TD201 Carries6.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

13 Receptions122 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume69
Explosiveness70
Consistency34
Receiving32

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency34th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.46 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 3.84 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Grambling.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsGrambling	W31-9	—	10	173	17.3	2	—	—	—	3.84
2	@Florida State	L44-45	1.8	26	126	4.8	1	1	3	0	0.08
4	@Iowa State	L20-72	12.6	14	87	6.2	1	—	—	—	0.16
5	vsSouth Alabama	W30-17	-20.3	15	93	6.2	0	—	—	—	-0.17
6	vsMemphis	L33-52	18.0	19	119	6.3	0	2	13	0	0.35
7	@Texas State	W24-14	-16.2	22	114	5.2	2	—	—	—	-0.04
8	@App State	L7-52	11.3	13	77	5.9	0	—	—	—	0.05
10	vsArkansas State	L41-48	-2.9	18	60	3.3	1	4	23	0	0.06
11	vsGeorgia State	W45-31	-10.5	20	168	8.4	2	1	8	0	0.52
12	@Georgia Southern	L29-51	-4.5	12	43	3.6	0	2	22	0	0.01
13	vsCoastal Carolina	W45-42	-12.8	19	129	6.8	2	1	1	0	0.39
14	@Louisiana	L30-31	9.6	13	109	8.4	0	2	52	0	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.1%

Passing plays

4.3%

Rushing plays

43.2%

Standard downs

28.5%

Passing downs

14.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.06
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.