#1CJ Marable

RB·Coastal Carolina·2020 20191.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

CJ Marable is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Coastal Carolina. CJ's 2020 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 201 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CJ Marable's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

889 Rush yards12 Rush TD169 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

31 Receptions228 Rec yards7 Rec TD7.4 Yards/rec

Returns

7 Kick returns112 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume74
Explosiveness46
Consistency56
Receiving92

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency56th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Texas State (SP+ -13).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	@Kansas	W38-23	-16.3	21	75	3.6	0	2	-3	0	-0.19
3	vsCampbell	W43-21	—	11	54	4.9	2	1	4	0	0.33
5	vsArkansas State	W52-23	-6.5	15	63	4.2	1	4	25	1	0.19
7	@Louisiana	W30-27	8.1	17	73	4.3	1	3	40	1	0.29
8	vsGeorgia Southern	W28-14	0.2	19	19	1.0	0	4	38	1	-0.23
9	@Georgia State	W51-0	-5.7	10	71	7.1	1	3	29	1	0.34
10	vsSouth Alabama	W23-6	-11.3	5	17	3.4	0	3	21	1	-0.20
12	vsApp State	W34-23	10.3	5	65	13.0	0	3	9	1	0.35
13	@Texas State	W49-14	-13.4	16	157	9.8	3	1	0	0	0.73
14	vsBYU	W22-17	19.2	23	132	5.7	2	3	10	0	0.17
15	@Troy	W42-38	2.3	20	120	6.0	2	3	47	1	0.43
1	vsLiberty	L34-37	6.5	7	43	6.1	0	1	8	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.0%

Passing plays

13.1%

Rushing plays

33.5%

Standard downs

27.5%

Passing downs

21.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.05
Passing downs: 0.69
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Coastal Carolina	2.1	0.270	—	52.6
2020	Coastal Carolina	1.5	0.270	—	45.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.