#5Rakeem Boyd

RB·Arkansas·20192.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Rakeem Boyd is a Featured Back for Arkansas. Rakeem's 2019 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 191 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rakeem Boyd's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1133 Rush yards8 Rush TD184 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions160 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency50
Volume75
Explosiveness64
Consistency46
Receiving42

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency46th %ile · average

Key findings

▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.50 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Western Kentucky (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsPortland State	W20-13	—	18	114	6.3	1	3	22	0	0.41
2	@Ole Miss	L17-31	2.9	17	67	3.9	0	1	8	0	-0.06
3	vsColorado State	W55-34	-3.9	20	122	6.1	2	—	—	—	0.17
4	vsSan José State	L24-31	-7.2	18	91	5.1	0	3	10	0	-0.00
5	vsTexas A&M	L27-31	15.0	18	89	4.9	0	2	10	0	-0.08
7	@Kentucky	L20-24	9.1	15	134	8.9	2	—	—	—	0.48
8	vsAuburn	L10-51	21.0	13	39	3.0	0	2	26	0	-0.20
9	@Alabama	L7-48	32.4	12	50	4.2	0	4	55	0	0.42
10	vsMississippi State	L24-54	3.5	11	114	10.4	1	—	—	—	0.49
11	vsWestern Kentucky	L19-45	1.7	8	185	23.1	2	—	—	—	1.50
13	@LSU	L20-56	33.1	13	33	2.5	0	2	27	0	0.02
14	vsMissouri	L14-24	7.8	21	95	4.5	0	2	2	0	-0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.3%

Passing plays

6.1%

Rushing plays

51.4%

Standard downs

31.7%

Passing downs

16.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.06
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.