#17Josh Jackson

QB·Virginia Tech·20174.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Josh Jackson is a Clutch Passer for Virginia Tech. Josh's 2017 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 507 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Jackson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

236/396 Comp/Att2991 Pass yards20 Pass TD9 INT59.6% Comp %

Rushing

324 Rush yards6 Rush TD124 Carries2.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat48
Consistency69
Clutch87

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs East Carolina (SP+ -14).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWest Virginia	W31-24	5.6	15/26	235	1	0	83.9	101	1	0.50
2	vsDelaware	W27-0	—	16/28	222	2	0	50.9	19	0	0.08
3	@East Carolina	W64-17	-14.0	24/31	372	5	0	96.5	-5	0	0.82
4	vsOld Dominion	W38-0	-16.8	20/30	298	3	1	64.1	29	0	0.43
5	vsClemson	L17-31	26.4	29/44	251	1	2	28.3	13	0	-0.05
6	@Boston College	W23-10	4.6	22/33	322	1	1	60.6	-3	0	0.20
8	vsNorth Carolina	W59-7	4.3	10/20	132	3	0	56.9	19	0	0.47
9	vsDuke	W24-3	6.1	13/27	200	1	0	43.4	20	1	0.07
10	@Miami	L10-28	17.4	20/32	197	0	2	13.0	12	1	-0.12
11	@Georgia Tech	L22-28	8.9	14/26	153	0	0	34.7	-1	0	0.03
12	vsPittsburgh	W20-14	6.0	17/37	218	1	1	49.9	32	1	0.27
13	@Virginia	W10-0	0.8	14/21	143	1	1	84.6	38	0	0.31
1	vsOklahoma State	L21-30	19.1	22/41	248	1	1	37.3	50	2	0.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.2%

Passing plays

96.3%

Rushing plays

18.4%

Standard downs

44.0%

Passing downs

67.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.