Utah State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 5:04SDSURashaad Penny 7 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)14–48
- Q4 8:47SDSUChase Price 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)14–41
- Q3 12:17USUDevante Mays 26 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)14–34
- Q2 1:29SDSUDonny Hageman 21 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q2 4:36SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 62 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)7–31
- Q2 5:14USUHunter Sharp 45 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)7–24
- Q2 6:51SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 4 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:53SDSUDonny Hageman 41 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 8:52SDSUMaxwell Smith 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:35SDSUMikah Holder 18 Yd pass from Maxwell Smith (Donny Hageman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKent Myers 8/19, 93 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDevante Mays 15 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Sharp 4 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMaxwell Smith 6/10, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDonnel Pumphrey 23 CAR, 181 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJemond Hazely 3 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:52SDSU +19%
Maxwell Smith 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)
- Q1 9:35SDSU +17%
Mikah Holder 18 Yd pass from Maxwell Smith (Donny Hageman Kick)
- Q2 6:51SDSU +13%
Donnel Pumphrey 4 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)
- Q2 4:36SDSU +13%
Donnel Pumphrey 62 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)
- Q2 5:14USU +11%
Hunter Sharp 45 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)
- Q1 2:53SDSU +9%
Donny Hageman 41 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. San Diego State?
Utah State 14, San Diego State 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 239 | Total yards | 429 |
| 95 | Passing yards | 93 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 336 |
| 16 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 9/20 | Comp/Att | 6/10 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 22:45 | Possession | 37:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:57 SDSU punt on 4th & 3 at USU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:04SDSURashaad Penny 7 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)14–48
- Q4 8:47SDSUChase Price 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)14–41
- Q3 12:17USUDevante Mays 26 Yd Run (Brock Warren Kick)14–34
- Q2 1:29SDSUDonny Hageman 21 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q2 4:36SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 62 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)7–31
- Q2 5:14USUHunter Sharp 45 Yd pass from Kent Myers (Brock Warren Kick)7–24
- Q2 6:51SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 4 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:53SDSUDonny Hageman 41 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 8:52SDSUMaxwell Smith 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:35SDSUMikah Holder 18 Yd pass from Maxwell Smith (Donny Hageman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1457, USU Elo 1741 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +9 (29% to win) — 4.5 points clear of USU's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #69 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →San Diego State leads 13–5 · Utah State has won 3 straight · 28% have been one-possession games
| USU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#65) | CORE overall | +11.2 (#32) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +1 / -10 |
| 2.27 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 1.13 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →