#19Donnel Pumphrey

RB·San Diego State·2016 2015 20144.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Donnel Pumphrey is a 3-year Featured Back for San Diego State. Donnel's 2016 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 353 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donnel Pumphrey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

2133 Rush yards17 Rush TD349 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions231 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.6 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns6 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Explosiveness62
Consistency77
Receiving55

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs California (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
D'Onta Foreman	Texas	2016	332	0.340	5.3	112.9
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Hampshire	W31-0	—	21	98	4.7	1	4	41	0	0.14
2	vsCalifornia	W45-40	2.4	29	281	9.7	3	4	29	0	0.59
3	@Northern Illinois	W42-28	-2.4	23	220	9.6	3	1	-3	0	0.41
5	@South Alabama	L24-42	-9.4	25	151	6.0	1	2	7	0	-0.02
6	vsUNLV	W26-7	-14.3	31	141	4.5	1	7	57	0	0.14
7	@Fresno State	W17-3	-16.9	38	220	5.8	2	—	—	—	0.24
8	vsSan José State	W42-3	-13.6	24	135	5.6	2	2	14	0	0.31
9	@Utah State	W40-13	-4.4	32	223	7.0	0	—	—	—	0.44
10	vsHawai'i	W55-0	-10.1	21	112	5.3	0	—	—	—	0.24
11	@Nevada	W46-16	-13.0	26	198	7.6	1	—	—	—	0.48
12	@Wyoming	L33-34	-6.9	17	76	4.5	0	5	52	0	0.14
13	vsColorado State	L31-63	0.8	18	53	2.9	1	1	8	0	0.03
14	@Wyoming	W27-24	-6.9	25	110	4.4	1	—	—	—	0.03
1	vsHouston	W34-10	10.1	19	115	6.1	1	1	26	0	0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

42.6%

Passing plays

13.0%

Rushing plays

57.2%

Standard downs

48.7%

Passing downs

29.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 40 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	San Diego State	5.0	0.380	—	93.5
2015	San Diego State	2.6	0.240	-0.14	73.2
2016	San Diego State	4.2	0.320	+0.08	110.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.