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Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1#18Utah over #13Oregon
62–20 · on the road · 2015-09-27
+14+56.019%
2Georgia State over Georgia Southern
34–7 · on the road · 2015-12-05
+22+49.08%
3South Florida over Cincinnati
65–27 · at home · 2015-11-21
+2.5+40.544%
4Southern Miss over Louisiana Tech
58–24 · on the road · 2015-11-28
+6.5+40.534%
5Western Michigan over Ohio
49–14 · on the road · 2015-10-17
+4+39.040%
6San Diego State over Utah State
48–14 · at home · 2015-10-24
+5+39.038%
7Georgia Southern over Bowling Green
58–27 · neutral site · 2015-12-24
+7.5+38.532%
8San Diego State over Cincinnati
42–7 · neutral site · 2015-12-25
+2.5+37.544%
9New Mexico over Boise State
31–24 · on the road · 2015-11-15
+29.5+36.53%
10#25Florida over #3Ole Miss
38–10 · at home · 2015-10-03
+6.5+34.534%
11Utah State over #21Boise State
52–26 · at home · 2015-10-17
+8.5+34.530%
12#7LSU over South Carolina
45–24 · at home · 2015-10-10
+13+34.021%
13Iowa State over Texas
24–0 · at home · 2015-10-31
+9.5+33.528%
14Navy over #15Memphis
45–20 · on the road · 2015-11-08
+8.5+33.530%
15Fresno State over Hawai'i
42–14 · on the road · 2015-11-15
+4+32.040%
16Temple over Penn State
27–10 · at home · 2015-09-05
+14+31.019%
17Bowling Green over Maryland
48–27 · on the road · 2015-09-12
+10+31.027%
18Georgia Southern over Western Michigan
43–17 · at home · 2015-09-12
+4.5+30.539%
19Eastern Michigan over Wyoming
48–29 · on the road · 2015-09-12
+11+30.025%
20UConn over UCF
40–13 · on the road · 2015-10-10
+3+30.043%
21Georgia State over Ball State
31–19 · on the road · 2015-10-17
+16.5+28.515%
22Arizona State over #7UCLA
38–23 · on the road · 2015-10-03
+13+28.021%
23#14Florida State over #10Florida
27–2 · on the road · 2015-11-29
+3+28.043%
24Furman over UCF
16–15 · on the road · 2015-09-19
+26+27.05%
25Washington State over Oregon
45–38 · on the road · 2015-10-10
+20+27.011%
26Georgia State over Texas State
41–19 · on the road · 2015-11-14
+5+27.038%
27Texas over #12Baylor
23–17 · on the road · 2015-12-05
+20.5+26.510%
28Buffalo over Ohio
41–17 · at home · 2015-10-24
+2+26.045%
29Arkansas over #9LSU
31–14 · on the road · 2015-11-15
+9+26.029%
30Arkansas State over App State
40–27 · on the road · 2015-11-06
+12.5+25.522%
31Toledo over #18Arkansas
16–12 · on the road · 2015-09-12
+21+25.09%
32San Diego State over San José State
30–7 · on the road · 2015-10-18
+2+25.045%
33UConn over East Carolina
31–13 · at home · 2015-10-30
+7+25.033%
34#12Oklahoma State over #5TCU
49–29 · at home · 2015-11-07
+5+25.038%
35Toledo over Bowling Green
44–28 · on the road · 2015-11-17
+9+25.029%
36Auburn over #25Texas A&M
26–10 · on the road · 2015-11-08
+8.5+24.530%
37Duke over #20Georgia Tech
34–20 · at home · 2015-09-26
+10+24.027%
38South Florida over #21Temple
44–23 · at home · 2015-11-15
+3+24.043%
39Memphis over #13Ole Miss
37–24 · at home · 2015-10-17
+10.5+23.526%
40New Mexico State over Texas State
31–21 · on the road · 2015-11-07
+13+23.021%
41South Alabama over San Diego State
34–27 · on the road · 2015-09-20
+15.5+22.517%
42New Mexico over Air Force
47–35 · at home · 2015-11-29
+10.5+22.526%
43Tulsa over New Mexico
40–21 · on the road · 2015-09-13
+3+22.043%
44Washington over #17USC
17–12 · on the road · 2015-10-09
+17+22.014%
45Pittsburgh over Duke
31–13 · on the road · 2015-11-14
+4+22.040%
46Texas Tech over Arkansas
35–24 · on the road · 2015-09-19
+10.5+21.526%
47Air Force over Boise State
37–30 · on the road · 2015-11-21
+14.5+21.518%
48The Citadel over South Carolina
23–22 · on the road · 2015-11-21
+20.5+21.510%
49#12Clemson over #19Oklahoma
37–17 · neutral site · 2015-12-31
+1.5+21.546%
50Rice over Army
38–31 · at home · 2015-10-24
+14+21.019%
51Texas over #10Oklahoma
24–17 · neutral site · 2015-10-10
+13.5+20.520%
52Temple over Memphis
31–12 · at home · 2015-11-21
+1.5+20.546%
53#8Houston over #10Florida State
38–24 · neutral site · 2015-12-31
+6.5+20.534%
54#23Northwestern over #21Stanford
16–6 · at home · 2015-09-05
+10+20.027%
55Purdue over Nebraska
55–45 · at home · 2015-10-31
+10+20.027%
56#24Western Kentucky over Vanderbilt
14–12 · on the road · 2015-09-04
+17.5+19.514%
57North Texas over UTSA
30–23 · at home · 2015-10-31
+12+19.023%
58Ohio over Northern Illinois
26–21 · on the road · 2015-11-25
+13.5+18.520%
59Stanford over #6USC
41–31 · on the road · 2015-09-20
+8+18.031%
60Florida International over UCF
15–14 · on the road · 2015-09-03
+17+18.014%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.