Tulsa vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats


TLSATeam statsFAU
- Q4 6:52TLSAZ. Langer run for 3 yds for a TD, (C. Salazar KICK)21–50
- Q4 6:52TLSAZack Langer 3 Yd Run (Carl Salazar Kick)21–50
- Q4 11:57FAUG. Hankerson pass,to D. Moise for 9 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)14–50
- Q4 11:57FAUDerek Moise 9 Yd pass from Greg Hankerson (Greg Joseph Kick)14–50
- Q3 1:06FAUG. Joseph 41 yd FG GOOD14–43
- Q3 1:06FAUGreg Joseph 41 Yd Field Goal 14–43
- Q3 4:18FAUJ. Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)14–40
- Q3 4:18FAUJaquez Johnson 5 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)14–40
- Q3 8:01TLSAM. Dixon run for 3 yds for a TD, (C. Salazar KICK)14–33
- Q3 8:01TLSAMandel Dixon 3 Yd Run (Carl Salazar Kick)14–33
- Q2 3:30FAUJ. Johnson pass,to J. Stoshak for 59 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)7–33
- Q2 3:30FAUJenson Stoshak 59 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Greg Joseph Kick)7–33
- Q2 5:37FAUD. Evans sacked by R. Eugene for -19 yds for a SAFETY,TULSA penalty, intentional grounding (N/A)7–26
- Q2 5:37FAURobinson Eugene Safety7–26
- Q2 6:16FAUJ. Johnson pass,to A. Deleon for 14 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)7–24
- Q2 6:16FAUAlex Deleon 14 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Greg Joseph Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:35TLSAD. Evans pass,to C. Floyd for 9 yds for a TD, (C. Salazar KICK)7–17
- Q2 10:35TLSAConner Floyd 9 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Carl Salazar Kick)7–17
- Q1 7:09FAUD. Evans pass intercepted for a TD,D. Smith return for 23 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)0–17
- Q1 7:09FAUD'Joun Smith 23 Yd Interception Return (Greg Joseph Kick)0–17
- Q1 9:24FAUJ. Johnson pass,to W. Dukes for 74 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)0–10
- Q1 9:24FAUWilliam Dukes 74 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Jaquez Johnson Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:54FAUG. Joseph 21 yd FG GOOD0–3
- Q1 11:54FAUGreg Joseph 21 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDane Evans 24/49, 269 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushZack Langer 9 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Atkinson 7 REC, 85 YDS
- PassJaquez Johnson 15/20, 318 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJay Warren 13 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecJenson Stoshak 4 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:24FAU +17%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 74 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)
- Q2 6:16FAU +14%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 14 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)
- Q2 10:35TLSA +12%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 9 yds for a TD (Carl Salazar KICK)
- Q1 7:09FAU +11%
Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD D'Joun Smith return for 23 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)
- Q1 11:54FAU +8%
Greg Joseph 21 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Florida Atlantic?
Tulsa 21, Florida Atlantic 50.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| TLSA | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Total yards | 518 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 94 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/52 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 14.8 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-25 | Penalties | 4-37 |
| 25:55 | Possession | 34:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:23 FAU punt on 4th & 2 at TLSA 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:52TLSAZ. Langer run for 3 yds for a TD, (C. Salazar KICK)21–50
- Q4 6:52TLSAZack Langer 3 Yd Run (Carl Salazar Kick)21–50
- Q4 11:57FAUG. Hankerson pass,to D. Moise for 9 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)14–50
- Q4 11:57FAUDerek Moise 9 Yd pass from Greg Hankerson (Greg Joseph Kick)14–50
- Q3 1:06FAUG. Joseph 41 yd FG GOOD14–43
- Q3 1:06FAUGreg Joseph 41 Yd Field Goal 14–43
- Q3 4:18FAUJ. Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)14–40
- Q3 4:18FAUJaquez Johnson 5 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)14–40
- Q3 8:01TLSAM. Dixon run for 3 yds for a TD, (C. Salazar KICK)14–33
- Q3 8:01TLSAMandel Dixon 3 Yd Run (Carl Salazar Kick)14–33
- Q2 3:30FAUJ. Johnson pass,to J. Stoshak for 59 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)7–33
- Q2 3:30FAUJenson Stoshak 59 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Greg Joseph Kick)7–33
- Q2 5:37FAUD. Evans sacked by R. Eugene for -19 yds for a SAFETY,TULSA penalty, intentional grounding (N/A)7–26
- Q2 5:37FAURobinson Eugene Safety7–26
- Q2 6:16FAUJ. Johnson pass,to A. Deleon for 14 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)7–24
- Q2 6:16FAUAlex Deleon 14 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Greg Joseph Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:35TLSAD. Evans pass,to C. Floyd for 9 yds for a TD, (C. Salazar KICK)7–17
- Q2 10:35TLSAConner Floyd 9 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Carl Salazar Kick)7–17
- Q1 7:09FAUD. Evans pass intercepted for a TD,D. Smith return for 23 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)0–17
- Q1 7:09FAUD'Joun Smith 23 Yd Interception Return (Greg Joseph Kick)0–17
- Q1 9:24FAUJ. Johnson pass,to W. Dukes for 74 yds for a TD, (G. Joseph KICK)0–10
- Q1 9:24FAUWilliam Dukes 74 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Jaquez Johnson Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:54FAUG. Joseph 21 yd FG GOOD0–3
- Q1 11:54FAUGreg Joseph 21 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1260, TLSA Elo 1283 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -1.5 (55% to win) — 3.0 points clear of FAU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #92 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| TLSA | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.86 |
| 2.71 | allowed / drive | 2.72 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 35% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
































