Colorado State vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsWYO
- Q4 3:58WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.52–22
- Q4 3:58WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.52–21
- Q4 9:19CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.52–15
- Q4 9:19CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.51–15
- Q4 11:24CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.45–15
- Q4 11:24CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.44–15
- Q3 7:26CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.38–15
- Q3 7:26CSUCOLORADO ST pass complete for a touchdown.38–15
- Q3 12:35WYOWYOMING2-point conversion rush GOOD.31–15
- Q3 12:35WYOWYOMING pass complete for a touchdown.31–13
- Q3 13:35CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.31–7
- Q3 13:35CSUCOLORADO ST pass complete for a touchdown.30–7
- Q2 0:03CSUCOLORADO ST 45 yard field goal GOOD.24–7
- Q2 0:55WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.21–7
- Q2 0:55WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.21–6
- Q2 3:52CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.21–0
- Q2 3:52CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.20–0
- Q1 2:50CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 2:50CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 13:24CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:24CSUCOLORADO ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassGarrett Grayson 18/23, 219 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKapri Bibbs 29 CAR, 201 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJoe Hansley 4 REC, 50 YDS
- PassBrett Smith 21/36, 246 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTedder Easton 5 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDom Rufran 7 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCSU up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:50CSU +17%
Donnell Alexander rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 13:24CSU +15%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:52CSU +13%
Kapri Bibbs rush for 7 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 13:35CSU +10%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Austin Gray for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:55WYO +9%
Shaun Wick rush for 11 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:26CSU +9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Donnell Alexander for 34 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Wyoming?
Colorado State 52, Wyoming 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CSU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 509 | Total yards | 416 |
| 219 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 290 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 26 | First downs | 17 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/23 | Comp/Att | 22/37 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-46 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 35:27 | Possession | 24:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:53 CSU punt on 4th & 1 at CSU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:58WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.52–22
- Q4 3:58WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.52–21
- Q4 9:19CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.52–15
- Q4 9:19CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.51–15
- Q4 11:24CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.45–15
- Q4 11:24CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.44–15
- Q3 7:26CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.38–15
- Q3 7:26CSUCOLORADO ST pass complete for a touchdown.38–15
- Q3 12:35WYOWYOMING2-point conversion rush GOOD.31–15
- Q3 12:35WYOWYOMING pass complete for a touchdown.31–13
- Q3 13:35CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.31–7
- Q3 13:35CSUCOLORADO ST pass complete for a touchdown.30–7
- Q2 0:03CSUCOLORADO ST 45 yard field goal GOOD.24–7
- Q2 0:55WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.21–7
- Q2 0:55WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.21–6
- Q2 3:52CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.21–0
- Q2 3:52CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.20–0
- Q1 2:50CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 2:50CSUCOLORADO ST rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 13:24CSUCOLORADO ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:24CSUCOLORADO ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1443, CSU Elo 1325 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -7.1 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #65 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Colorado State leads 57–52–5 · 34% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →