#18Garrett Grayson

QB·Colorado State·201411.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Garrett Grayson is a Clutch Passer for Colorado State. Garrett's 2014 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 426 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Garrett Grayson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

270/420 Comp/Att4006 Pass yards32 Pass TD7 INT64.3% Comp %

Rushing

-46 Rush yards0 Rush TD57 Carries-0.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency80
Volume100
Dual-Threat27
Consistency80
Clutch84

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (80th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.21 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.30 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Wyoming (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	vsColorado	W31-17	-5.0	13/23	134	1	0	70.8	3	0.34
2	@Boise State	L24-37	11.6	31/58	434	3	2	64.3	-6	0.36
3	vsUC Davis	W49-21	—	22/31	425	4	0	93.2	6	0.74
5	@Boston College	W24-21	4.9	27/41	268	2	2	55.0	-5	0.20
6	vsTulsa	W42-17	-15.8	12/18	236	3	1	83.1	3	0.63
7	@Nevada	W31-24	-7.3	26/36	326	3	0	86.0	6	0.44
8	vsUtah State	W16-13	6.0	20/31	243	0	0	41.2	-25	0.14
9	vsWyoming	W45-31	-14.0	18/21	390	5	0	98.9	-3	1.30
10	@San José State	W38-31	-11.5	22/28	290	1	0	93.8	-8	—
11	vsHawai'i	W49-22	-15.0	13/24	278	4	0	35.1	-1	0.71
13	vsNew Mexico	W58-20	-15.0	23/29	389	3	0	93.4	17	0.91
14	@Air Force	L24-27	-1.4	23/46	366	3	1	46.2	-12	0.27
1	vsUtah	L10-45	8.8	20/34	227	0	1	34.7	-21	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.9%

Passing plays

93.7%

Rushing plays

9.0%

Standard downs

46.5%

Passing downs

67.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.35
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / 0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.