James Madison vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsGASO
- Q4 14:32JMUOmarion Dollison 35 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Max Lipinski Kick)14–28
- Q3 4:43GASOElija Walton 2 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–28
- Q3 8:20JMUDJ Barksdale 11 Yd Interception Return (Max Lipinski Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:43GASOTyler Fromm 15 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–21
- Q2 3:48GASODerwin Burgess Jr. 5 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:23GASODavid Mbadinga 29 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAlonza Barnett III 22/41, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGeorge Pettaway 13 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecOmarion Dollison 3 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJC French IV 24/33, 215 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushJalen White 23 CAR, 134 YDS
- RecDerwin Burgess Jr. 5 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 669 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:48GASO +29%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q2 1:43GASO +18%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 15 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q1 4:23GASO +15%
David Mbadinga run for 29 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q3 8:20JMU +14%
JC French pass intercepted DJ Barksdale return for 11 yds for a TD (Max Lipinski KICK)
- Q4 14:24GASO +14%
Jalen White run for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 20
- Q3 4:43GASO +13%
JC French pass complete to Elija Walton for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Georgia Southern?
James Madison 14, Georgia Southern 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| JMU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 253 | Total yards | 405 |
| 186 | Passing yards | 215 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 16 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/41 | Comp/Att | 24/33 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 10-66 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 26:01 | Possession | 33:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:09 JMU go for it on 4th & 8 at GASO 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:32JMUOmarion Dollison 35 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Max Lipinski Kick)14–28
- Q3 4:43GASOElija Walton 2 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–28
- Q3 8:20JMUDJ Barksdale 11 Yd Interception Return (Max Lipinski Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:43GASOTyler Fromm 15 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–21
- Q2 3:48GASODerwin Burgess Jr. 5 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:23GASODavid Mbadinga 29 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1371, JMU Elo 1866 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO +17.4 (14% to win) — 7.9 points clear of JMU's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #51 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| JMU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 (#52) | CORE overall | -8.0 (#93) |
| -5 / -9 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.32 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →