McNeese vs. Eastern Illinois: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

McNeese0-1

0028

Eastern Illinois0-1

▸0031

Final

O'Brien Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MCNE	14	14	0	0	28
EAST	7	7	0	17	31

MCNETeam statsEAST

467Total yards452

196Pass141

271Rush311

24First downs27

4-93rd down8-16

0Turnovers0

24:12Possession35:48

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:20EASTStone Galloway 56 Yd Field Goal 28–31
• Q4 3:15EASTJuwon Farri 19 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)28–28
• Q4 12:35EASTMJ Flowers 6 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)28–21
• Q2 0:34EASTEli Mirza 12 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)28–14
• Q2 5:16MCNEColeby Hamm 72 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)28–7
• Q2 8:57MCNEJon McCall 22 Yd pass from Nate Glantz (Garrison Smith Kick)21–7
• Q1 1:40MCNED'Angelo Durham 12 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)14–7
• Q1 9:47MCNEJon McCall 30 Yd pass from Nate Glantz (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:10EASTPierce Holley 1 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

EAST −12

Against the number

MCNE covered

line EAST −12

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EAST 100%50%MCNE 100%

Kickoff158 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

EAST (top)MCNE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EAST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

EAST −12

Closing total

47.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MCNE 28 – 31 EAST

Leaders

McNeese

• PassNate Glantz 13/24, 196 YDS, 2 TD
• RushColeby Hamm 8 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJon McCall 5 REC, 93 YDS, 2 TD

Eastern Illinois

• PassPierce Holley 21/34, 141 YDS
• RushM.J. Flowers 37 CAR, 272 YDS, 1 TD
• RecEli Mirza 8 REC, 52 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.6sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

146

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MCNE up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,965 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

72%

MCNE went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

LAkron vs Temple21-24WMiami vs Texas A&M48-33WStephen F. Austin vs Alcorn State38-10WMiami (OH) vs Cincinnati38-24LApp State vs Wyoming19-30

Fourth downs

13 calls

EAST gave up 3.2 points to the model on fourth down.MCNE 3/4 · EAST 4/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of McNeese vs. Eastern Illinois?

McNeese 28, Eastern Illinois 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (EAST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MCNE

EAST

53%

Success rate

48%

0.23

EPA / pass

-0.13

0.49

EPA / rush

0.52

55%

Early-down success

47%

42%

Pass success

35%

61%

Rush success

60%

19%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

6%

12%

Stuffed rush rate

0%

44%

Pass rate

46%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.5

MCNE

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

EAST

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

87 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MCNE		EAST
467	Total yards	452
196	Passing yards	141
271	Rushing yards	311
24	First downs	27
4-9	3rd down	8-16
0-1	4th down	2-3
13/24	Comp/Att	21/34
8.2	Yards per pass	4.1
8.0	Yards per rush	6.3
0	Turnovers	0
5-60	Penalties	6-42
24:12	Possession	35:48

Fourth downs

13 calls

MCNE

3/4 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

EAST

4/7 with the model

−3.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 5:48 EAST punt on 4th & 3 at MCNE 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MCNE 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →EAST 5/10 scoring drives

MCNEPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 18Q1

EASTTD4 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1

MCNETD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

EASTDOWNS13 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q1

MCNETD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

EASTPUNT8 pl, 33 yds· own 32Q1

MCNETD11 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q2

MCNETD2 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

EASTPUNT7 pl, 38 yds· own 21Q2

EASTTD14 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q2

MCNEEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q3

MCNEDOWNS8 pl, 29 yds· own 34Q3

EASTTD12 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3

EASTPUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q3

MCNEPUNT6 pl, 34 yds· own 6Q3

EASTTD10 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q4

MCNEMISS9 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q4

MCNEPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q4

EASTFG9 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q4

MCNEUncateg3 pl, 14 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:20EASTStone Galloway 56 Yd Field Goal 28–31
• Q4 3:15EASTJuwon Farri 19 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)28–28
• Q4 12:35EASTMJ Flowers 6 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)28–21
• Q2 0:34EASTEli Mirza 12 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)28–14
• Q2 5:16MCNEColeby Hamm 72 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)28–7
• Q2 8:57MCNEJon McCall 22 Yd pass from Nate Glantz (Garrison Smith Kick)21–7
• Q1 1:40MCNED'Angelo Durham 12 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)14–7
• Q1 9:47MCNEJon McCall 30 Yd pass from Nate Glantz (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:10EASTPierce Holley 1 Yd Run (Julian Patino Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →