Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsCIN
- OT 0:00M-OHJoe Wilkins Jr. 8 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)31–24
- Q4 5:10M-OHGraham Nicholson 20 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 13:52CINEmory Jones 17 Yd Run (Emory Jones Pass to Chamon Metayer for Two-Point Conversion)21–24
- Q3 3:01M-OHKevin Davis 1 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)21–16
- Q3 7:23CINCarter Brown 23 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 1:52CINCarter Brown 23 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 9:22M-OHJavon Tracy 17 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:40CINCarter Brown 28 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 11:47CINCorey Kiner 4 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:45M-OHGage Larvadain 79 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- M-OH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CIN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 5.1
- M-OH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassBrett Gabbert 12/20, 237 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrett Gabbert 9 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecGage Larvadain 1 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassEmory Jones 18/34, 265 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRyan Montgomery 20 CAR, 104 YDS
- RecXzavier Henderson 12 REC, 140 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,965 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:52CIN +34%
Emory Jones 17 Yd Run (Emory Jones Pass to Chamon Metayer for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 3:01M-OH +32%
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
- Q4 5:10M-OH +25%
Graham Nicholson 20 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 5:10CIN +24%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 26
- Q4 0:09CIN +17%
Carter Brown 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by
- Q2 9:22M-OH +17%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 17 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati?
Miami (OH) 31, Cincinnati 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| M-OH | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 358 | Total yards | 538 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 265 |
| 121 | Rushing yards | 273 |
| 16 | First downs | 30 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 12/20 | Comp/Att | 18/34 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-42 | Penalties | 10-78 |
| 23:42 | Possession | 36:18 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:10 M-OH field goal on 4th & 2 at CIN 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00M-OHJoe Wilkins Jr. 8 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)31–24
- Q4 5:10M-OHGraham Nicholson 20 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 13:52CINEmory Jones 17 Yd Run (Emory Jones Pass to Chamon Metayer for Two-Point Conversion)21–24
- Q3 3:01M-OHKevin Davis 1 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)21–16
- Q3 7:23CINCarter Brown 23 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 1:52CINCarter Brown 23 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 9:22M-OHJavon Tracy 17 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:40CINCarter Brown 28 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 11:47CINCorey Kiner 4 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:45M-OHGage Larvadain 79 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1637, M-OH Elo 1321 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -15 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #12 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Cincinnati leads 35–34–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| M-OH | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.3 (#75) | CORE overall | -7.4 (#93) |
| -9 / -7 | offense / defense | -1 / +7 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 1.18 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →