Texas A&M vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TA&MTeam statsMIA
- Q4 2:37MIAJacolby George 64 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)33–48
- Q4 5:02TA&MNoah Thomas 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)33–41
- Q4 6:28MIAAndres Borregales 50 Yd Field Goal 26–41
- Q4 12:37MIAJacolby George 3 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)26–38
- Q3 2:29TA&MEarnest Crownover 19 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–31
- Q3 5:39MIAAndres Borregales 34 Yd Field Goal 20–31
- Q3 8:55MIABrashard Smith 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Andres Borregales Kick)20–28
- Q3 9:07TA&MRandy Bond 28 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q2 0:13MIAJacolby George 11 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)17–21
- Q2 11:06MIAIsaiah Horton 52 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)17–14
- Q2 13:11TA&MAmari Daniels 9 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)17–7
- Q1 2:08MIAColbie Young 3 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:25TA&MRandy Bond 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:30TA&MConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassConner Weigman 31/53, 336 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushAmari Daniels 18 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEvan Stewart 11 REC, 142 YDS
- PassTyler Van Dyke 21/30, 374 YDS, 5 TD
- RushHenry Parrish Jr. 10 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecXavier Restrepo 6 REC, 126 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,964 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:55MIA +27%
Randy Bond kickoff for 63 yds, Brashard Smith return for 98 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q2 0:13MIA +24%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 11 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q3 2:29TA&M +22%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Earnest Crownover for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 12:37MIA +19%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q2 11:06MIA +16%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 52 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q1 12:30TA&M +16%
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas A&M vs. Miami?
Texas A&M 33, Miami 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TA&M, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TA&M | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 451 |
| 336 | Passing yards | 374 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 25 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 31/53 | Comp/Att | 21/30 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 12.5 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 10-115 |
| 32:17 | Possession | 27:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:28 TA&M punt on 4th & 1 at TA&M 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:37MIAJacolby George 64 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)33–48
- Q4 5:02TA&MNoah Thomas 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)33–41
- Q4 6:28MIAAndres Borregales 50 Yd Field Goal 26–41
- Q4 12:37MIAJacolby George 3 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)26–38
- Q3 2:29TA&MEarnest Crownover 19 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–31
- Q3 5:39MIAAndres Borregales 34 Yd Field Goal 20–31
- Q3 8:55MIABrashard Smith 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Andres Borregales Kick)20–28
- Q3 9:07TA&MRandy Bond 28 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q2 0:13MIAJacolby George 11 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)17–21
- Q2 11:06MIAIsaiah Horton 52 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)17–14
- Q2 13:11TA&MAmari Daniels 9 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)17–7
- Q1 2:08MIAColbie Young 3 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:25TA&MRandy Bond 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:30TA&MConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1481, TA&M Elo 1656 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA +4.6 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#66 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #92 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #35 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →| TA&M | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.4 (#21) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#28) |
| +8 / -7 | offense / defense | +8 / -5 |
| 2.94 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 1.16 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →