App State vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsWYO
- Q4 1:52WYOJakorey Hawkins 62 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Andrew Peasley Pass to John Michael Gyllenborg for Two-Point Conversion)19–22
- Q4 11:31WYOHarrison Waylee 75 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)19–14
- Q4 11:42APPTyrek Funderburk 18 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hughes Kick)19–7
- Q2 0:00APPMichael Hughes 50 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 1:09APPMichael Hughes 20 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 12:28WYOAndrew Peasley 9 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)6–7
- Q1 3:00APPMichael Hughes 28 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:41APPMichael Hughes 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJoey Aguilar 22/40, 200 YDS, 1 INT
- RushNate Noel 30 CAR, 107 YDS
- RecKaedin Robinson 3 REC, 51 YDS
- PassAndrew Peasley 5/15, 31 YDS, 1 INT
- RushHarrison Waylee 17 CAR, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWyatt Wieland 2 REC, 18 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,964 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:42APP +21%
Tyrek Funderburk 18 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hughes Kick)
- Q4 11:31WYO +21%
Harrison Waylee run for 75 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q2 12:28WYO +19%
Andrew Peasley run for 9 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q4 11:24APP +10%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete
- Q4 2:12APP +10%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the WYO 30
- Q2 1:09APP +10%
Michael Hughes 20 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Wyoming?
App State 19, Wyoming 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| APP | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 417 | Total yards | 208 |
| 200 | Passing yards | 31 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 27 | First downs | 7 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/40 | Comp/Att | 5/15 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 2.1 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 8-65 |
| 40:25 | Possession | 19:35 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:42 APP punt on 4th & 1 at WYO 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:52WYOJakorey Hawkins 62 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Andrew Peasley Pass to John Michael Gyllenborg for Two-Point Conversion)19–22
- Q4 11:31WYOHarrison Waylee 75 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)19–14
- Q4 11:42APPTyrek Funderburk 18 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hughes Kick)19–7
- Q2 0:00APPMichael Hughes 50 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 1:09APPMichael Hughes 20 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 12:28WYOAndrew Peasley 9 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)6–7
- Q1 3:00APPMichael Hughes 28 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:41APPMichael Hughes 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1402, APP Elo 1577 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +4.6 (39% to win) — 7.6 points clear of APP's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| APP | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#49) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#70) |
| +8 / +5 | offense / defense | -2 / -0 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.12 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →