Florida vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsUTAH
- Q4 9:22FLACaleb Douglas 19 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Graham Mertz Pass to Eugene Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)11–24
- Q3 11:06UTAHBryson Barnes 5 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–24
- Q2 2:52UTAHCole Becker 51 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 7:50UTAHNate Johnson 27 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:27FLAAdam Mihalek 32 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:10UTAHMoney Parks 70 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassGraham Mertz 31/44, 333 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTrevor Etienne 7 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecRicky Pearsall 8 REC, 92 YDS
- PassBryson Barnes 12/18, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNate Johnson 6 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMoney Parks 1 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:10UTAH +12%
Money Parks 70 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)
- Q2 7:50UTAH +11%
Nate Johnson 27 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
- Q1 2:27FLA +5%
Adam Mihalek 32 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Utah?
Florida 11, Utah 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| FLA | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Total yards | 270 |
| 333 | Passing yards | 165 |
| 13 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 17 | First downs | 13 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 31/44 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 0.6 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-46 | Penalties | 5-37 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:29 UTAH punt on 4th & 3 at FLA 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:22FLACaleb Douglas 19 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Graham Mertz Pass to Eugene Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)11–24
- Q3 11:06UTAHBryson Barnes 5 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–24
- Q2 2:52UTAHCole Becker 51 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 7:50UTAHNate Johnson 27 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:27FLAAdam Mihalek 32 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:10UTAHMoney Parks 70 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1776, FLA Elo 1554 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -11.3 (78% to win) — 4.8 points clear of UTAH's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FLA | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.7 (#41) | CORE overall | -0.1 (#62) |
| +9 / +3 | offense / defense | -8 / -8 |
| 2.36 | points / drive | 1.86 |
| 2.72 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →