Portland State vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Portland State0-1

0017

Wyoming1-0

▸0031

Final

War Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
PORT	0	10	0	7	17
WYO	14	7	10	0	31

PORTTeam statsWYO

344Total yards371

254Pass201

90Rush170

20First downs19

11-203rd down4-8

2Turnovers2

32:18Possession27:42

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:03PORTMaclaine Griffin 10 Yd pass from Dante Chachere (Gianni Smith Kick)17–31
• Q3 1:55WYOAyir Asante 14 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)10–31
• Q3 6:42WYOJohn Hoyland 56 Yd Field Goal 10–24
• Q2 0:16PORTGianni Smith 45 Yd Field Goal 10–21
• Q2 4:52WYOWyatt Wieland 29 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)7–21
• Q2 8:50PORTDante Chachere 2 Yd Run (Gianni Smith Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:51WYOAyir Asante 64 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:03WYOJamari Ferrell 1 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

WYO −28

Against the number

PORT covered

line WYO −28

What the numbers say

• WYO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PORT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.0 vs 3rd & 6.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

WYO 100%50%PORT 100%

Kickoff149 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

WYO (top)PORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WYO 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

WYO −28

Closing total

51.5

Model line

—

Actual result

PORT 17 – 31 WYO

Leaders

Portland State

• PassDante Chachere 22/38, 214 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushQuincy Craig 12 CAR, 54 YDS
• RecMaclaine Griffin 3 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD

Wyoming

• PassAndrew Peasley 11/16, 201 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
• RushSam Scott 11 CAR, 70 YDS
• RecAyir Asante 2 REC, 78 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

136

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WYO up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

WYO went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3WJames Madison vs Bucknell38-3WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7

Fourth downs

12 calls

PORT gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.PORT 5/7 · WYO 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Portland State vs. Wyoming?

Portland State 17, Wyoming 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

PORT

WYO

38%

Success rate

51%

0.13

EPA / pass

0.76

-0.05

EPA / rush

0.00

31%

Early-down success

51%

42%

Pass success

59%

33%

Rush success

47%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

34%

56%

Pass rate

31%

6.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

11.0

PORT

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

81 scrimmage snaps

WYO

11.0 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

PORT		WYO
344	Total yards	371
254	Passing yards	201
90	Rushing yards	170
20	First downs	19
11-20	3rd down	4-8
1-2	4th down	0-0
23/39	Comp/Att	11/16
6.5	Yards per pass	12.6
2.3	Yards per rush	4.4
2	Turnovers	2
2-15	Penalties	3-24
32:18	Possession	27:42

Fourth downs

12 calls

PORT

5/7 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

WYO

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 12:36 PORT punt on 4th & 6 at WYO 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.18 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

PORT 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →WYO 5/12 scoring drives

WYOFUM6 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q1

PORTINT3 pl, 11 yds· own 22Q1

WYOTD5 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q1

PORTPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1

WYOTD3 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1

PORTTD18 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

WYOPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

PORTFUM3 pl, 14 yds· own 49Q2

WYOTD3 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2

PORTPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

WYOINT6 pl, 47 yds· own 4Q2

PORTFG5 pl, 17 yds· opp 45Q2

WYOEND1 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

PORTPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q3

WYOFG11 pl, 41 yds· own 20Q3

PORTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

WYOTD7 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

PORTPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

WYOPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 16Q4

PORTTD11 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q4

WYOPUNT7 pl, -1 yds· midfieldQ4

PORTDOWNS12 pl, 82 yds· own 9Q4

WYOEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 9Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:03PORTMaclaine Griffin 10 Yd pass from Dante Chachere (Gianni Smith Kick)17–31
• Q3 1:55WYOAyir Asante 14 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)10–31
• Q3 6:42WYOJohn Hoyland 56 Yd Field Goal 10–24
• Q2 0:16PORTGianni Smith 45 Yd Field Goal 10–21
• Q2 4:52WYOWyatt Wieland 29 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)7–21
• Q2 8:50PORTDante Chachere 2 Yd Run (Gianni Smith Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:51WYOAyir Asante 64 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:03WYOJamari Ferrell 1 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →